[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 022204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022203
OHZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-022300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0503 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KY...SRN OH...AND NRN MIDDLE
TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 16...

VALID 022203Z - 022300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 16
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS REGION REMAINS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH DOWNSTREAM OF WW 16 IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS EXTENDING FROM SRN OH ACROSS KY AND INTO NRN
MIDDLE TN CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD. 21Z SFC OBSERVATIONS TO THE E OF
THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS INDICATE DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE
50S...AND WITH MARGINAL MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 DEG C/KM
ALOFT...MLCAPE DECREASES QUICKLY WITH EWD EXTENT. THIS MAY TEND TO
LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL E OF THE WW 16. HOWEVER...A
POSSIBLE MCV FEATURE EVIDENT ON AREA RADARS OVER S-CNTRL KY NEAR
BOWLING GREEN MOVING EWD MAY HELP PROMOTE CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WITH AN ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT
ACROSS S-CNTRL KY/NRN MIDDLE TN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. IF
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT ORGANIZED BOWING STRUCTURES ACROSS
THIS REGION OVER THROUGH 23Z...THEN A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO
THE E OF WW 16 MAY BE NEEDED. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LIMITED
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ERN KY...THE PROBABILITY OF WATCH
ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY NO MORE THAN 40 PERCENT.

..GLEASON.. 04/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36018663 36278699 37078670 37758570 38768415 38918301
            38688257 37848281 36898419 36598500 36018663


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