[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

Fri Apr 3 11:57:21 CDT 2015

ACUS11 KWNS 031657
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031656
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-031830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0200
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN IL...WRN/CNTRL KY...WRN/MIDDLE TN...FAR SRN
IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 031656Z - 031830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH
VALLEY INTO MIDDLE TN. LARGE HAIL...STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS...AND A
COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
ISSUED BEFORE 18Z.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC OBS TRENDS SHOW MODEST
DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY
IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MCV. ONGOING
TSTMS ARE GENERALLY OCCURRING ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...AND
HAVE SLOWLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HR. PAH VWP DATA APPEARS TO
ADEQUATELY SAMPLE WINDS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS...SHOWING
MODERATE-STRONG LOW-LEVEL S-SWLY WINDS VEERING TO WLY IN THE
MID-LEVELS. ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN
MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG.

CURRENT INDICATION IS THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ALONG
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL KY INTO MIDDLE TN...WITH BOTH
CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE FEATURING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND
GUSTS. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT...DESPITE THE TENDENCY
FOR WARM SECTOR WINDS TO VEER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE...WHICH WILL PROBABLY OCCUR
BEFORE 18Z.

..ROGERS/CONIGLIO/CORFIDI.. 04/03/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37938868 38248651 38528518 37508482 35748558 35648889
            35878995 36938950 37938868

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