[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 021857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021857
GAZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-022000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NRN AL...FAR NWRN GA...PARTS OF WRN/MIDDLE
TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 021857Z - 022000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MS/AL/GA INTO
TN. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION OVER NERN MS
AND A BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. MODERATELY STRONG AND GRADUALLY
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT ARE YIELDING EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF
25-35 KT...MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LATEST RADAR TRENDS REFLECT THIS...WITH A
GENERALLY DISORGANIZED CHARACTER TO ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS THE
AREA...AND ONLY WEAKLY CONFLUENT WINDS AT THE SFC.
HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION /ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE/ HAS OCCURRED TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST CORES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
BOTH THE MAGNITUDE AND LOW SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THESE THREATS SHOULD
REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

..ROGERS/HART.. 04/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   35308512 34548503 33598557 33168641 33458822 34188896
            35358859 35868825 36198656 35308512



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