[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 142305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142305
TNZ000-ALZ000-150030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0604
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0605 PM CDT WED MAY 14 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TN/NORTHERN AL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153...

VALID 142305Z - 150030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE/PERHAPS BRIEF TORNADO RISK WILL
CONTINUE ON A LIMITED BASIS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IF MODEST
INTENSITY TRENDS PERSIST...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SEVERE TSTM
WATCH 153 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z.

DISCUSSION...WELL-ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO MAKE A GRADUAL
EASTWARD PROGRESSION /15-20 KT/ ACROSS MIDDLE TN/NORTHERN AL AS OF
23Z. OWING TO A PRECEDING CLOUD CANOPY/SCATTERED PRECIPITATION...THE
OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE SQUALL LINE HAS REMAINED QUITE MODEST SINCE
LATE AFTERNOON INCLUDING A RELATIVE ABSENCE OF CLOUD-GROUND
LIGHTNING. WHILE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR
STRONGER UPDRAFTS...THE ONLY POSSIBLE PERCEIVED FACTOR FOR AN
UPSWING IN LINE ORGANIZATION/SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS IS AN EXPECTED
INCREASE IN 1-2 KM AGL SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING. LATEST WSR-88D
VWP DATA FROM NASHVILLE/OHX SHOWS 50 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH AS MUCH
AS 200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH. IF MODEST CONVECTIVE INTENSITY TRENDS
CONTINUE AS EXPECTED...SEVERE TSTM WATCH 153 WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z.

..GUYER.. 05/14/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN...

LAT...LON   34468735 35538701 36638665 36288483 34518632 34468735


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