[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 221909
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221909
VAZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-222115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0209 PM CDT THU MAY 22 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF KY/TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 221909Z - 222115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS KY ALONG A
SWD-SAGGING COLD FRONT AND MOVE E/SEWD INTO TN THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE PROBABLE.

DISCUSSION...A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR HTS TO CGI...WITH
INCREASING CU/SMALL CBS FORMING ALONG IT NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE
OH/MS RIVERS INTO WRN KY. RECENT HRRR RUNS AND 12Z WRF-NSSL ARE
CONSISTENT IN SIMULATING CONVECTION EMANATING E/NEWD ACROSS THE BULK
OF KY/TN. WITH RICHEST SURFACE DEW POINTS /FROM UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S/ LOCATED NEAR THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT...AIR MASS IS LIKELY
STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 2500-3000 J/KG. NEARLY ALL BUOYANCY
IS PROBABLY RELEGATED TO THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS OF THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE GIVEN A WARM NOSE EVIDENT IN MORNING RAOBS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS NEAR 700 MB. ON THE FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
WLYS...SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR MULTICELL UPDRAFTS.
BUT GIVEN PREDOMINATELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WLYS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
LITTLE SPEED SHEAR FROM THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS...HODOGRAPHS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN SMALL. STILL...ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/22/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37768693 37678558 37428391 37108313 36608294 35908339
            35598400 35498529 35848724 36218812 36738891 37098877
            37458830 37768693


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