[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 072032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072032
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-072300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0883
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MS...NRN AL...MIDDLE/SRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 072032Z - 072300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN THE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THIS MAY NECESSITATE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF MODEST MID-LEVEL ASCENT/MOISTENING ORIENTED
ALONG A N/S-ORIENTED AXIS IS CROSSING PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION INTO N-CNTRL MS. WITH
AROUND 1500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE...STORMS THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED AMIDST
WEAK SFC CONVERGENCE BUT DIURNALLY DEEPENED PBL CIRCULATIONS MAY BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR HAIL/WIND. GIVEN 30-35 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW
BOLSTERING DEEP SHEAR...MULTICELL CLUSTERS -- POSSIBLY GROWING
LOCALLY UPSCALE -- MAY ENHANCE THE RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS. LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...INTENSE CONVECTION UPSTREAM IN WW
252 MAY ALSO AFFECT PARTS OF THE AREA WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SVR RISK.
BEFORE THAT TIME...THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP ASCENT COULD PRECLUDE A
GREATER-COVERAGE EVENT FROM OCCURRING.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/07/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON   35088966 35268899 35528732 36518693 36408590 35748562
            33898576 33288734 33258921 34358969 35088966


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