[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 071726
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071725
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-071930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0877
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN MO...SRN IL...WRN KY...NRN
AR...WRN TN...FAR SWRN INDIANA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 071725Z - 071930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN THE
SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL...AND THIS MAY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...AN ARC OF CONVECTION IS CROSSING THE MS RIVER NEAR AND
N OF ST LOUIS...AND EXTENDS SWWD INTO SERN MO WITHIN THE ERN
SEMICIRCLE OF 1006-MB SFC CYCLONE CENTERED OVER W-CNTRL MO. THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY A LONG-LIVED MCV THAT EVOLVED
FROM NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE SRN PLAINS...AND IS GENERALLY
CO-LOCATED WITH THE SFC CYCLONE. DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF
MCV/CONVECTIVE ARC INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY IS ONGOING OWING TO AT
LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION AMIDST UPPER 60S/AROUND 70F SFC DEWPOINTS
S/SW OF A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM NEAR STL SEWD TO MIDDLE TN. THIS
MAY LEAD TO AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION AS IT
SPREADS EWD...WITH SOME INCREASE IN THE DMGG WIND RISK -- POSSIBLY A
TORNADO.

OF PARTICULAR CONCERN...STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOTED
AT THE SRN EDGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION WWD TO A CONFLUENCE
AXIS EXTENDING S OF THE CYCLONE TO N-CNTRL AR. VIS IMAGERY INDICATES
MID-LEVEL CONVECTION INCREASING WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR -- I.E.  FROM
S-CNTRL MO AND ADJACENT FAR NRN AR -- AND THIS MAY BE A FAVORABLE
ZONE FOR EVENTUAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT GIVEN MORE A MORE DISCRETE
CONVECTIVE MODE AND 40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW. STRONGER INSTABILITY IN
THIS REGION -- E.G. MLCAPE AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG -- WILL AID IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...AND DMGG WINDS AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN. THE TORNADO RISK COULD INCREASE
IF SUSTAINED CONVECTION WERE TO ADVANCE EWD INTO MORE BACKED SFC
WINDS FOUND E OF THE CONFLUENCE AXIS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER.
HOWEVER...SUCH POTENTIAL WILL BE SPATIALLY CONFINED OWING TO SFC
WINDS EXHIBITING A TENDENCY OF VEERING WITHIN APPRECIABLE
PROPORTIONS OF THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/07/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   36379305 37419225 38269081 39209015 39368928 38558762
            37118741 35848850 35418986 35449267 36379305


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