[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 111740
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111740
TNZ000-KYZ000-111945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1545
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...KY...TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 111740Z - 111945Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS POSING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE NEAR
THE MIDDLE TN/KY BORDER AREA AND SOUTH ACROSS MIDDLE TN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
THE KY/TN BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A SMALL/WEAKLY
ORGANIZED BUT PERSISTENT MCS MOVING INTO EASTERN KY. STRONGER
SURFACE HEATING ACROSS NORTHERN/MIDDLE TN...AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S F...HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO AN INCREASE
IN SBCAPE TO AROUND 3000 J/KG OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. NEW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE MCS OUTFLOW...AND AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT...WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE INSTABILITY CORRIDOR THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW OF AROUND 30KT MAY RESULT
IN GREATER STORM ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE WHILE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION FURTHER SUPPORTS
REGENERATIVE CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE STORM MERGERS.

WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION LIKELY TAKING ON MULTICELLULAR
CHARACTER...THE MAGNITUDE OF CAPE AND HIGH PW /AROUND 2 INCHES/
FOCUSED NEAR THE OUTFLOW/FRONT INTERSECTION...AND ACROSS MIDDLE
TN...SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOTH STORM COVERAGE AND
VIGOR. STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LINEARLY ALONG THE APPROACHING WEAK
COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
MARGINAL SHEAR...DEEP/WARM CLOUD LAYER AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT SUGGEST AT LEAST AN ISOLATED WET MICROBURST THREAT ALONG
WITH PERHAPS A GREATER CHANCE FOR LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

..CARBIN/THOMPSON.. 08/11/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   35648741 35878789 36158777 36358751 36618674 36778520
            36728396 36468388 36118434 35898501 35718573 35648630
            35648711 35648741



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