[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 171821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171821
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-172015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1561
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AR...WRN INTO MIDDLE TN...WRN KY...MO BOOTHEEL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 171821Z - 172015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE COVERAGE OF
SEVERE STORMS MAY BE TOO LIMITED FOR WATCH ISSUANCE...BUT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER TSTM ACTIVITY NOW EXTENDING
ACROSS NRN MS INTO MIDDLE TN...ADDITIONAL TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS NWRN TN/SWRN KY AND ALSO ACROSS CNTRL AR NEAR LIT...WITH
ADDITIONAL CU ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/NERN AR. HEATING WITHIN A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RESULTED IN MLCAPE OF 1500-3000 J/KG IN AN
AREA BOUNDED BY A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST AND NORTH AND
OUTFLOW/ONGOING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

FROM AR INTO WRN TN...MID-UPPER FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG...BUT 30-40 KTS OF FLOW IN THE 2-4 KM LAYER /PER VAD
WINDS/FCST SOUNDINGS/ AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN AREAS OF
STRONG HEATING WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS. FURTHER NORTH INTO KY...WINDS ARE BACKED AND HPX/LVX
VAD WIND PROFILES ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR
MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DESTABILIZATION DECREASES WITH NERN EXTENT DUE TO EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUSTAINED...ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...WW ISSUANCE IS
CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION.

..DEAN/WEISS.. 08/17/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LZK...

LAT...LON   34999073 34489258 35299276 35819204 36199142 36459052
            36688963 37088867 37538736 37648652 37368599 36568631
            36228701 35778795 35418966 34999073


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