[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 061959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061958
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-062200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1516
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT WED AUG 06 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MO...SRN IL...WRN KY/TN...NE AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 061958Z - 062200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PULSE TO LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS SHOULD BE
CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
THROUGH ABOUT 00Z.

DISCUSSION...WITHIN A PLUME OF RICH PW VALUES CHARACTERIZED BY
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...A MODERATELY
BUOYANT AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS ALONG A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
ZONE NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MS/OH VALLEYS. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE
FORMED OVER SE MO WHICH MAY COALESCE INTO A SLOW SE-MOVING CLUSTER
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MODEST PER AMDAR DATA
INVOF STL AND MEM...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE GREATER
ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES. BUT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
BUOYANCY...SPORADIC MICROBURSTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TREE DAMAGE MAY
OCCUR.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 08/06/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

LAT...LON   37799090 37898991 37758877 37358782 36898767 36248761
            35668773 35288816 34968849 34958926 35028987 35709069
            36469102 36849123 37799090



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