[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 060633
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060632
OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-060730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1947
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN INTO N CNTRL KENTUCKY...SRN INDIANA...AND WRN
OHIO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542...

VALID 060632Z - 060730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 542
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WHILE THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH WEAKENING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE...IT APPEARS
LOW ENOUGH THAT A NEW SEVERE WEATHER WATCH DOES NOT SEEM NECESSARY.
THE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 542 MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED AT 07Z.

DISCUSSION...WITHIN THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE ONGOING PRE-FRONTAL
SQUALL LINE...A BROAD LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
REMAINS EVIDENT...MIGRATING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 30-35 KTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA.  THIS FEATURE MAY CONTINUE EAST NORTHEAST
OF THE BLOOMINGTON AREA...TOWARD THE DAYTON OH AREA...THROUGH THE
08-10Z TIME FRAME.  HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE WEAKENING OF CONVECTION
HAS OCCURRED DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND LITTLE IS EVIDENT TO
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE RE-RE-INTENSIFICATION.  ALTHOUGH
ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A 40+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW FIELD...AND A CORRIDOR OF SEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER...SUB-CLOUD EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...WITH A
SHALLOW SURFACE-BASED STABLE LAYER ALSO LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.

..KERR.. 10/06/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...

LAT...LON   39098623 39778560 40138467 39758414 38828473 37918553
            36878639 36568772 37168733 37878662 39098623


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