[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 060002
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060001
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-060200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1944
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0701 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN TN THROUGH SWRN AND CNTRL KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 060001Z - 060200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...RECENT TRENDS HAVE SHOWN BETTER ORGANIZATION OF STORMS
FROM NWRN TN THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL KY. AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST INTO THE MID EVENING THROUGH THIS
CORRIDOR. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
TORNADO WATCH.

DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING A LONE SUPERCELL STORM HAS EVOLVED
ACROSS NWRN TN. THIS STORM EXISTS IN A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 AND
TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 WITH LOW-LCLS AND MODEST /1000 J/KG/ MLCAPE.
VWP DATA SHOW SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR /35-40 KT/ FOR
SUPERCELLS...BUT LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE RATHER SMALL.
NEVERTHELESS...THE STORM IS MOVING NEWD ALONG A BOUNDARY WHERE
LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAY BE GREATER THAN WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE VWP
DATA. MOREOVER...THE STORM IS ISOLATED WITH NO OTHER CONVECTION
LIKELY TO DESTRUCTIVELY INTERFERE DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THIS
STORM MAY REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH
01Z. ADDITIONAL STORMS WITH MARGINAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL KY.

AN INCREASE IN THE LLJ AND HODOGRAPH SIZE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
FROM WRN TN NEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE
ROBUST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE LOSS OF DIABATIC WARMING.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW-LCLS... SUFFICIENT
CAPE FOR SFC BASED STORMS AND STRENGTHENING LLJ AT LEAST A MODEST
THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
PERSIST INTO MID-EVENING.

..DIAL/WEISS.. 10/06/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   37238485 36958612 35938894 36488924 38618478 37238485


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