[BNAWX] Severe Storm Outlook Narrative

[EMWIN Server]

ACUS11 KWNS 061728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061727
OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-062000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1948
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL OHIO...EASTERN KENTUCKY...MIDDLE TENNESSEE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 061727Z - 062000Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WINDS.

DISCUSSION...PBL CIRCULATIONS CONTINUE DEEPENING...COMMENSURATE WITH
DIABATIC SFC-LAYER HEATING INDUCED BY POCKETS OF INSOLATION OVER THE
ERN FRINGES OF A WIDESPREAD/OPAQUE CLOUD SHIELD CENTERED W OF THE
MCD AREA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE N/S-ORIENTED CLOUD
STREETS INDICATIVE OF THE DEEPENING PBL AMIDST MODESTLY RICH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S/ AND
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. MODIFIED 12Z BNA RAOB TO ACCOUNT FOR
CURRENT SFC CONDITIONS INDICATE MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND LITTLE
INHIBITION WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S. MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION IS
BLOSSOMING WITHIN A REGIME OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE PRECEDING
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CG LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT ORGANIZES INTO
NNE/SSW-ORIENTED BANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD
TOWARD CENTRAL OHIO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

AREA VWP DATA SAMPLE 40-50 KT SWLY/S IN THE 4-6-KM AGL LAYER THAT
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED
STORMS...PRIMARILY ORGANIZED AS QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS. AND...WITH A
30-45-KT LLJ BETWEEN 1 AND 3 KM AGL...CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT
MAY YIELD DMGG WIND GUSTS WITH LINE-EMBEDDED BOWING SURGES.
HOWEVER...STRONGER DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ACCOMPANYING A LARGER-SCALE PV MAX LAG TO THE W OF THE STEEPER
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS FACTOR...ALONG WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...COULD CURTAIL THE OVERALL SVR THREAT.

..COHEN/HART.. 10/06/2013

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON   36938558 38148383 39858271 39858204 38688233 37278319
            35798464 35408568 35838622 36938558



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