[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Mar 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Swell Event: Large swell generated by a
a 1002 mb low pressure system north of the area near 34N66W is
propagating southward through the waters north of about 27N and
between 64W and 75W. Seas produced by this swell are in the range
of 12 to 19 ft. The low pressure will move slowly south-southeast
and today. and is expected to cross into the Atlantic forecast
waters south of 31N through mid-week, then gradually becomes
stationary near 26N60W on Thu while dissipating. Large north to
northeast swell will gradually subside west of 70W through late
Wed, but persist east of 70W through Fri as the swell moves
eastward.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
adjust their routes accordingly.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the
Guinea/Sierra Leone border and continues southwestward to near
03N17W. Latest scatterometer data indicates that the ITCZ extends
from 03N17W to the equator at 22W and to the coast of Brazil near
05S38W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen
within 180 nm north of the ITCZ between 19W-24W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The earlier gale warning has been allowed to expire.

A cold front is analyzed from near Mobile, Alabama to 26N92W and
to just south of Tampico, Mexico. Another cold front is just along
the Texas coast. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are
behind the first front. The pressure gradient between this front
and high pressure east of Florida is sustaining strong to near-
gale force south to southeast winds east of the front. Seas of 8
to 11 ft are being produced by these winds. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are
elsewhere across the area, except for slightly higher seas of 7
to 10 ft offshore southwestern Louisiana. Lower seas of 4 to 6 ft
are over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Satellite imagery shows a
line of scattered showers and thunderstorms within 60 nm east of
the first front north of 28N.

For the forecast, the strong to near gale-force south to southeast
winds east of the front will quickly diminish today. The front
will slowly shift to the southeastern of the Gulf through late
Thu. Expect fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas over
mainly the south-central and southeast Gulf behind the front Thu
and Fri, as high pressure builds across the basin and low pressure
deepens off the Carolinas. Winds and seas will diminish again
across the Gulf into Sat as the high pressure moves eastward
across the northern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure that is present
just north of the Bahamas and relatively weaker pressures in the
Caribbean is leading to light to gentle winds over the central
Caribbean. Latest available partial ASCAT data passes indicate
generally gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the
eastern Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles. These winds are due to
the gradient found on the southwestern periphery of broad high
pressure that is controlling the weather regime of the eastern and
central Atlantic. Latest buoy and altimeter satellite data passes
indicate seas of 6 to 8 ft in the northwestern Caribbean and 5 to
7 ft elsewhere, except for lower seas of 3 to 5 ft over the
central Caribbean.

Moderate to strong subsidence aloft as a result of upper-level
ridging is leading to dry sinking air that is practically
inhibiting convection over the basin.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong southeast winds over the
northwestern Caribbean will diminish across all but the Gulf of
Honduras this afternoon through tonight, as a cold front moves SE
into the central Gulf of Mexico. Winds across the northwest
Caribbean will diminish to moderate to locally fresh late Wed as
the cold front reaches the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The front will
then move through the Yucatan Channel and over the northwestern
Caribbean Thu afternoon and evening, reach from the Windward
Passage to NE Honduras Fri evening, and dissipate across the
northeast Caribbean Islands late Sat. Large north swell will move
into the Atlantic Passages of the northeastern and eastern
Caribbean late today and persist through early Thu before
subsiding.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A northerly swell event dominates the Western Atlantic northeast
through east of the Bahamas. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES
section above for more information.

A cold front has stalled from 31N61W to vicinity of the Virgin
Islands. High pressure is building in behind the front. Fresh to
strong west to northwest winds are west of the front to 71W and
north of about 30N, where seas are 14 to 19 ft in north swell.
Elsewhere west of the front, fresh north to northeast winds exist
west to near 75W along with seas of 8 to 12 ft in northeast swell
east and north of the Bahamas. Mostly strong east to southeast
winds are east of the frontal boundary to near 40W as seen in a
recent ASCAT satellite data pass. Seas are 8 to 11 ft with these
winds. The ASCAT satellite data pass also reveals fresh to
locally strong winds north of 15N and east of about 40W along
with seas of 8 to 11 in northeast to east swell.

Aside from the 1002 mb low north of the area near 34N66W as
described above under the Special Features section, broad high
pressure continues to be the main feature in control of the
weather pattern in the central and eastern Atlantic areas. Only
a small area of isolated showers and thunderstorms is noted from
21N to 26N between 42W-49W.

Moderate to locally fresh trade winds dominate the tropical
Atlantic along with seas of 7 to 9 ft in northeast swell.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stalled front will
weaken considerably through early Wed. Associated low pressure
north of Bermuda will begin to move slowly S-SE and weaken today
as it crosses into the area Atlantic waters through mid week, then
gradually becomes stationary near 26N60W on Thu while
dissipating. A narrow high pressure ridge will build southward
over the Bahamas through Wed leading to diminishing winds W of
the front. Large north to northeast well will gradually subside
west of 70W through late Wed, but persist east of 70W through Fri
as the swell moves eastward. Looking ahead, fresh to strong wind
and rough seas will follow a new cold front that will move off the
northeast Florida coast Thu, reach from Bermuda to eastern Cuba
Fri morning, and from near 31N55W to central Hispaniola Sat
morning.

$$
Aguirre
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