[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Mar 26 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Swell Event: Large swell, generated by a
deepening low pressure system located N of Bermuda, is
propagating southward into the Atlantic forecast waters, producing
seas to 12 to 19 ft roughly N of 26N between 64W and 75W. This
swell event will continue into tonight, with seas expected to peak
this morning near 20 ft along 31N. The low pressure will move
slowly S-SE and weaken, crossing into the Atlantic forecast
region Tue and gradually becoming stationary near 26N60W on Thu,
then dissipating. Large NE swell W of 70W will persist through
Wed morning before gradually subsiding. Large NW to N swell will
build southward across the waters E of 70W through tonight, then
slowly subside Wed through Thu.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a
ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida and a low
pressure system over Texas and the western Gulf supports southerly
winds reaching near gale-force over the north- central Gulf and
northeast Gulf, with frequent gusts to 40 kt and higher. Rough to
very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft prevail across this area. These
winds will diminish quickly today through tonight ahead of the
advancing cold front moving across the NW Gulf. Gale force gusts
are expected to end this morning.

South Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between
the ridge across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and two surface
troughs, one over eastern Mexico and the other one over Yucatan
Peninsula, and an approaching cold front off the Texas coast are
supporting southerly gale force winds over the central Bay of
Campeche, between 94W and 95W. Seas in the area of this winds
have built to 11 ft overnight. As the cold front continues to
progress SE this morning, the pressure gradient will relax.
Therefore, winds will decrease to strong this morning. Seas will
subside below 8 ft my Tue mid morning.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
adjust their routes accordingly.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Guinea/Sierra
Leone border and continues southwestward to near 03N17W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N17W to 00N28W to the coast of Brazil near 00N48W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is found S of 05.5N
between 13W and 49W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the north-central and northeast
Gulf, and for the southern Gulf of Mexico. Please read the
SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information.

A cold front has moved off the coast of Texas overnight and
reaches from the central southeast Louisiana coast to near
Tampico, Mexico. Overnight scatterometer data revealed moderate
to fresh NW to N winds behind the cold front. A ridge over the
eastern U.S. extends southwestward across Florida and the extreme
NE Gulf while a surface trough is along the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern supports fresh to strong SE to S
winds across most of the waters E of 91W, with gale-force gusts
across the north-central Gulf, and southerly gales over the Bay
of Campeche. Seas are 8 to 14 ft N of 22N between 84W and 96W,
and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere, except across the offshore waters of W
Florida, and W of the Yucatan peninsula where seas are generally 3
to 3 ft. Scattered light to moderate convection is along and
within 150 nm ahead of the front from 26N into SE Louisiana.

For the forecast, near gale-force S to SE winds and rough seas
across the north-central and northeast Gulf will quickly diminish
today, ahead of a cold front moving across the NW Gulf. The front
will move southeastward and briefly stall from the Florida
Panhandle to western Bay of Campeche this evening through Wed,
then will move southeast again and exit the Gulf by early Thu
evening. Expect fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas
over mainly the south-central and southeast Gulf behind the front
Thu and Fri, as high pressure builds across the basin and low
pressure deepens off the Carolinas. Winds and seas will diminish
again across the Gulf into Sat as the high pressure moves eastward
across the northern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong E to SE winds persist over the northwest
Caribbean W of 83W, between high pressure just north of the
Bahamas and a frontal trough extending from Haiti across Jamaica
into NE Honduras. Light to gentle winds are noted over the
central Caribbean while gentle to moderate E to SE winds are seen
over the eastern Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles, on the SW
periphery of a strong high pressure system that dominates most of
the east and central Atlantic. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across the NW
Caribbean, with the highest seas in the Yucatan Channel. Seas of 2
to 5 ft are elsewhere across the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds over the northwest
Caribbean will diminish across all but the Gulf of Honduras this
afternoon through tonight, as a cold front moves SE into the
central Gulf of Mexico. Winds across NW portions will diminish to
moderate to locally fresh late Wed as the cold front reaches the
eastern Gulf of Mexico. The front will then move through the
Yucatan Channel and into the NW Caribbean Thu afternoon and
evening, reach from the Windward Passage to NE Honduras Fri
evening, and dissipate across the NE Caribbean Islands late Sat.
Large N swell will move into the Atlantic Passages of the NE and E
Caribbean late today and persist through early Thu before
subsiding.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A northerly swell event dominates the Western Atlantic NE through
E of the Bahamas. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above
for more information.

A cold front has slowed its forward motion across the Atlantic
overnight, and extends from 31N62W to the Mona Passage.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is depicted within
180 nm E of the front, to the north of 20N. A pre-frontal trough
runs from 29N60W to the Virgin Islands. A ridge is noted behind
the front and extends from the eastern seaboard of the U.S.
southward across Florida and the Bahamas into western Cuba. The
remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence
of a strong high pressure center of 1034 mb located W of the
Azores near 38N39W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are in the wake
of the front N of 29N with seas of 10 to 19 ft N and E of the
Bahamas. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong SE winds are found N
of 25N with seas 9 to 11 ft. Similar wind speeds and seas of 8 to
11 ft are N of 20N under the influence of the aforementioned
strong high pressure across the NE Atlantic. Moderate to locally
fresh trade winds dominate the tropical Atlantic with seas of 5 to
9 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
will continue moving E-SE, and weaken considerably as it
moves across the regional Atlantic E of 60W and adjacent NE
Caribbean waters through early Wed. Associated low pressure N of
Bermuda will begin to move slowly S-SE and weaken today,
crossing into the area Atlantic waters late Tue and gradually
becoming stationary near 26N60W on Thu, then dissipating. A
narrow high pressure ridge will build southward into the Bahamas
through Wed leading to diminishing winds W of the front. Large N
to NE swell will continue to build southward, W of 70W, through
early Wed before gradually subsiding. Large NW to N swell will
build southward across the waters E of 70W through early Wed,
then slowly subside Wed through Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds and
large seas will persist across the far NE waters through Thu. A
new cold front will enter the NW waters Thu and reach from
Bermuda to eastern Cuba by Fri afternoon, and from 31N55W to
central Hispaniola by Sat morning.

$$
Stripling
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