[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Mar 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Swell Event: Large swell generated by a a 1004
mb low pressure system located north of the area near 34N66W is
propagating southward through the waters north of about 27N and
between 64W and 76W. Seas produced by this swell are in the
range of 12 to 16 ft based on altimeter data. The low pressure
will move slowly south- southeast and is expected to cross into
the Atlantic forecast waters south of 31N on Wed, then gradually
becomes stationary near 26N60W on Thu while dissipating. Large
north to northeast swell will gradually subside west of 70W
through on Wed, but persist east of 70W through Fri as the swell
moves eastward. Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine
conditions and adjust their routes accordingly.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the Guinea/Sierra
Leone border and continues southwestward to near 04N17W. The
ITCZ extends from 04N17W to the equator at 26W and to the coast
of Brazil near 05S35W. Most of the convective activity is south
of the Equator. A small are of moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 01N to 03N between 22W and 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the western Florida panhandle to the
central Bay of Campeche followed y another cold front that
stretches from SE Louisiana to the coast of Texas near Corpus
Christi. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds and seas of 8
to 10 ft are behind the first front. The pressure gradient between
this front and high pressure east of Florida is sustaining fresh
to strong SE to S winds east of the front with seas of 8 to 10
ft. Lower seas of 4 to 6 ft are over the eastern Bay of Campeche.
Satellite imagery shows a line of scattered showers and
thunderstorms within 60 nm east of the first front north of 28N.

For the forecast, the strong winds and rough seas associated
with the front over mainly the north-central and northeast Gulf
will subside late this evening. The second cold front over the
NW Gulf will stall and dissipate through mid-week. Expect fresh
to occasionally strong northerly winds along building seas
following the first front as it moves across the south-central
and southeast Gulf Thu into Fri, with seas becoming rough near
the Yucatan Channel by Thu night. Winds and seas will diminish
again across the Gulf into Sat as the high pressure moves
eastward across the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, expect moderate
to fresh SE return flow over the northwest Gulf by late Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong SE winds are noted over the NW Caribbean,
including the Yucatan Channel with seas of 6 to 8 ft. These winds
are ahead of a cold front currently moving across the central
Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between high pressure that
is present just north of the Bahamas and relatively weaker
pressures in the Caribbean is leading to light to gentle winds
over the central Caribbean. Latest available ASCAT data indicate
generally gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the
eastern Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles. These winds are due to
the gradient found on the southwestern periphery of broad high
pressure that is controlling the weather regime of the eastern
and central Atlantic. Latest buoy and altimeter satellite data
indicate seas of 6 to 8 ft in the northwestern Caribbean and 5 to
7 ft elsewhere, except for lower seas of 3 to 5 ft over the
central Caribbean. A cold front from the Atlantic reaches the
Leeward Islands generating mostly cloudy skies and shower
activity. Patches of low level clouds, with embedded showers, are
also noted over the NE Caribbean.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong SE winds over the northwest
Caribbean will diminish through Wed, as the aforementioned cold
front moves SE into the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong
N winds and large swell will follow the front as it moves through
the Yucatan Channel Thu. The front will continue to move SE and
reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu evening, and
from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras Fri morning as wind and
seas diminish across the northwest Caribbean. Looking ahead,
expect fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage by
Sat morning, as the front stalls from central Hispaniola to
northeast Nicaragua. Expect fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas across the central Caribbean Sun as high pressure builds
north of the region and to east of the northern Bahamas in the
wake of the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A northerly swell event dominates the Western Atlantic northeast
of the Bahamas. Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above
for more information.

A cold front is analyzed from 31N60W to the Leeward Islands where
the front is generating mostly cloudy skies and shower activity.
High pressure is building in behind the front with a ridge
extending southward toward the Bahamas, Cuba, Jamaica and
Hispaniola. Fresh to strong west to northwest winds are N of 28N
and west of the front to 72W where seas are 12 to 16 ft in north
swell. Elsewhere west of the front, light to gentle winds are
noted, with the exception of moderate SE winds W of 78W. Seas
are 8 to 12 ft in northeast swell east and north of the Bahamas.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the
influence of a high pressure center of 1032 mb located W of the
Azores near 36N38W. Fresh to strong anticyclonic flow is seen on
scatterometer data N of 20N and E of the above mentioned cold
front with seas of seas of 8 to 11 ft. Rough to very rough seas
surrounds the Madeira Islands. Moderate to locally fresh trade
winds dominate the tropical Atlantic with seas of 5 to 8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
move eastward and weaken through Wed as the associated low
pressure currently NW of Bermuda moves SE to near 29N60W Wed, and
to near 26N58W Thu. The attendant front will dissipate through
late Fri as the low pressure weakens and shifts northward again
to the E of Bermuda through Sat, accompanied by strong SE winds
and rough to very rough seas. Looking ahead, fresh to strong
wind and rough seas will follow a new cold front that will move
off the northeast Florida coast Thu, reach from Bermuda to eastern
Cuba Fri morning, and from near 31N55W to central Hispaniola Sat
morning. the front will stall and weaken from 31N55W to the
Leeward Islands by late Sun. Winds and seas will diminish in
most areas west of the front as high pressure builds along 27N in
the wake of the front.

$$
GR
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