[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200426
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Mar 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 01N26W. The ITCZ
extends from 01N26W to 01N37W and to 00N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed south of 07N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong upper level winds flowing across the northern Gulf of
Mexico associated with subtropical jetstream result in widespread
cloudiness and a few showers north of 25N. At the surface, a 1021
mb high pressure system centered near southern Louisiana
dominates the basin. The weak pressure gradient supports moderate
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the Gulf
waters.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the area through
Wed. A low pressure is forecast to develop over the NW Gulf near
the Texas coast late on Thu, then track northeast toward the
southeastern U.S. by Fri night pushing a cold front across the
basin. This next frontal system will bring increasing winds and
seas across the Gulf waters, as well as widespread showers and
thunderstorms.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front is analyzed over the far NW
Caribbean Sea. No deep convection is noted near this boundary or
elsewhere in the basin. The rest of the Caribbean is under the
influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered near the Azores.
The weak pressure gradient sustains moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds in the south-central and southeastern Caribbean Sea.
Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure located to the northeast of the
Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trade winds across
the eastern and central Caribbean through early Wed. The cold
front that recently moved into the NW Caribbean has stalled and
is weakening from central Cuba to just east of the northern
Yucatan Peninsula. This will weaken the gradient allowing for
the fresh to strong trade winds to diminish to moderate to fresh
speeds during Wed. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will
continue near the coast of Colombia through Sat night, then
diminish to moderate to fresh Sun and Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N61W and
continues southwestward to the central Bahamas and the central coast
of Cuba. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted north of 23N and between 58W and 66W. Fresh to strong SW
winds are found north of 28N and east of the cold front to 50W.
Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Fresh northerly winds and seas of
7-10 ft are noted north of 28N and west of the cold front to 66W.
The remainder of the western Atlantic west of the cold front is
dominated by broad ridging resulting in moderate or weaker winds
and northerly swell producing seas of 7-11 ft.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, a 1030 mb high pressure system
positioned near the Azores is the main feature of interest. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in
western Africa support fresh to strong NE winds north of 15N and
east of 40W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds are present south of 28N and east of 50W, along
with seas of 5-8 ft. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from
near 31N57W to east central Cuba by Wed morning. Weak low
pressure may form along the front near 30N56W on Thu morning, with
the front extending to eastern Cuba. The front will extend from
near 31N50W to northern Hispaniola by Fri morning. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms are north of 25N between 60W and 66W.
High pressure in the wake of the front will quickly shift eastward
through Fri night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds
to develop over the western half of the forecast waters as low
pressure tracks northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico to over
northern Florida, and to north of the area Sat and Sat night.
These winds will expand in coverage as they shift eastward ahead
of a cold front that will trail from the low over the western
waters, reaching from near 31N72W to eastern Cuba by late Sun.
Gale conditions will be possible over most of the northern and
central zones with the southerly winds Fri and Sat. Strong to near
gale northwest to north winds along with building seas will
follow in behind the front.

$$
Delgado
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