[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201036
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Mar 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 04N23W and
to 01N28W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ to below the Equator at 32W. om 01N26W to
01N37W and to 00N48W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
seen from 00N to 05N and between 16W and 26W. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is to the east from 00N to 05N and
east of 13W to the coast of Africa, and to the northwest of the
ITCZ from 01N to 04N between 48W-50W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure has settled in over the area allowing for marine
conditions to improve across the basin. The surface analysis
highlights a 1021 mb high center just east of New Orleans while
another one is in the NW Gulf at 29N94W. A trough extends from
near 24N97W southeastward to inland Mexico at 19N93W. It
continues southeastward to the extreme northwest part of Honduras.
Recent ASCAT satellite date passes reveal mostly gentle north to
northeast winds over the eastern and central Gulf, and gentle to
moderate east-southeast winds over the western half of the Gulf. A
small area of fresh northwest winds is confined to the extreme SW
Gulf from 19N to 21N west of 95W. Latest buoy and altimeter data
indicate that seas are slight to moderate throughout.

For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will quickly
shift eastward through Thu as a warm front and low pressure
develop near the Texas coast. The low pressure is forecast to
track east- northeastward across the northern Gulf and to over the
western Florida panhandle and the the southeastern U.S. Fri and
Fri night pushing a cold front across the basin. Fresh to strong
northerly winds will follow the front. Widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected with this next front and attendant low
pressure. High pressure in its wake will also quickly shift
eastward from late Sat night through Sun night, allowing for fresh
to strong southerly winds to develop over the western Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front recently dissipated over the far northwest Caribbean.
The surface analysis indicates that the basin is practically under
a rather weak pressure pattern for the time being as the earlier
broad western Atlantic ridge has weakened as a cold front moves
through the southeastern Bahamas. The weak gradient is maintaining
moderate to fresh trade winds in the south-central and
southeastern Caribbean Sea. Seas over these waters are in the
4 to 7 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight
to moderate seas remain.

For the forecast, high pressure located to the NE of the
Caribbean Sea will support fresh to strong trade winds across the
eastern and central Caribbean through this morning. These winds
will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds today due to a weakened
pressure gradient over the area. Fresh to strong northeast to east
winds will continue near the coast of Colombia through Sat night,
then diminish to moderate to fresh Sun and Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N60W to 25N68W and to eastern
Cuba. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
north of 23N and between 58W and 66W. Fresh to strong south to
southwest winds are north of 29N and east of the cold front to
a line from 31N52W to 29N55W. Seas with these winds are 8 to 10
ft. Fresh northerly winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are north of 28N
and west of the cold front to 65W. A large area of numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms is evident north of 23N
between 55W and 66W. This area of weather is shifting eastward.

The remainder of the western Atlantic west of the cold front is
under the influence of the eastern periphery of high pressure that
is migrating eastward from the Gulf of Mexico. The associated
gradient between it and the cold front is bringing ,moderate or
weaker winds and northerly swell creating seas in the range of
8-11 ft.

Elsewhere in the tropical Atlantic, a 1030 mb high pressure system
positioned near the Azores is the main feature of interest. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in
western Africa support fresh to strong northeast winds north of
15N and east of 40W. Seas over these waters are in the 8 to 10 ft
range. Moderate to fresh trade winds are south of 87N and east of
50W along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas continue across the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean
discussion area.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from
near 31N56W to 26N63W to near the Windward Passage by early this
evening, with weak low pressure forming along the northern end of
the front. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are north of 24N
between 55W and 66W. The weak low will be near 30N56W by early Thu
with trailing cold front to vicinity of Haiti. By early Fri, the
front will shift E of the area Fri as high pressure in the wake of
the front will quickly shift eastward through Fri night, allowing
for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop over the western
half of the forecast waters as low pressure tracks northeastward
from the Gulf of Mexico to inland the southeastern U.S. Fri night
and Sat. These winds will expand in coverage as they shift
eastward ahead of a cold front that will trail from the low over
the western waters, reaching from near 31N72W to eastern Cuba by
late Sun. Gale conditions will be possible over most of the
northern and central zones with the southerly winds Fri and Sat.
Strong to near gale northwest to north winds along with building
seas will follow in behind the front.

$$
Aguirre
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