[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Mar 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING SW NORTH ATLANTIC...

A cold front extends from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas to Cuba.
Behind this front, gale force NW to N winds and rough seas prevail
N of 29N westward to 67W. A broad area of strong NW to N winds and
rough seas behind the cold front N of 27N westward to 60W. Ahead
of the front, strong SW winds and rough seas prevail N of 27N E to
55W. As this front weakens this evening, gales will end. Strong
winds will continue on both sides of the cold front overnight,
before diminishing Wed. The rough seas will prevail into Wed
night, before subsiding.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
plan their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecasts and the Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near
10N14W to 03N18W to 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to the
Equator at 40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 07N E
of 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has moved SE of the basin early this evening.
Precipitation associated with the front has also exited, although
scattered moderate convection has developed within 120 nm of the
Mexico coastline N of Veracruz, where deep moisture is overrunning
the cool low-level airmass in the wake of the cold front. Fresh to
strong N winds are noted in the Bay of Campeche, otherwise
moderate to fresh mainly NE winds dominate waters S of 25N, with
gentle NE winds to the N. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in the southern Gulf
of Mexico and 3 to 6 ft in the northern Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas
in the wake of the aforementioned cold front will continue to
gradually diminish tonight. High pressure will dominate the Gulf
waters through Wed. A low pressure is forecast to develop over the
NW Gulf near the Texas coast late on Thu, then track northeast
toward the state of Georgia by Fri night pushing a cold front
across the basin. This next frontal system will bring increasing
winds and seas across the Gulf waters, as well as widespread
showers and thunderstorms.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trades dominate the SE basin, with moderate to
fresh mainly E winds over the remainder of the central and eastern
Caribbean. Across the western Caribbean, mainly gentle NE winds
prevail. However, a cold front has passed through the Yucatan
Channel, and winds are fresh and N to NE behind it. Seas are 6 to
8 ft in the central Caribbean, 3 to 6 ft in the eastern basin, and
2 to 5 ft in the west, except for behind the cold front, where
seas quickly build to 5 to 7 ft. No significant convection exists
in the Caribbean this evening.

For the forecast, high pressure NE of the area will support fresh
to strong trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean
through tonight. Afterward, winds will diminish to moderate to
fresh speeds as a cold front continues to move across the western
Atlantic, the Bahamas and Cuba. This front has reached western
Cuba and the NW Caribbean and will extend over central Cuba on
Wed, and across eastern Cuba on Thu while dissipating. Fresh to
strong northeast to east winds will continue near the coast of
Colombia through Sat night while decreasing in coverage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about
the gale warning in the SW North Atlantic.

Outside of the gale area, mainly moderate N winds prevail behind
the front. A 90 to 150 nm wide band of moderate to locally strong
convection is noted along and behind the cold front. This activity
is impacting much of the central Bahamas.

In the east Atlantic, areas E of 30W are dominated by fresh to
strong NE flow, with moderate to fresh trades for most waters E of
50W. For the remainder of the basin, W of 50W and ahead of the
direct influence of the cold front, gentle to moderate E to S
winds prevail.

Behind the cold front, E of 75W, seas are 8 to 11 ft, with 5 to 7
ft seas to the W. For waters E of 45W, 7 to 10 ft seas dominate.
For the remainder of the basin, 4 to 7 ft seas prevail over open
waters.

For the forecast, the cold front will reach from 31N57W to
central Cuba by Wed morning. A weak low pressure may form along
the front near 30N56W on Thu morning, with the front reaching
eastern Cuba. Then, the front will extend from near 31N50W to
northern Hispaniola by Fri morning. Gale force winds ahead of the
front are forecast to end late this afternoon. A band of showers
and thunderstorms is currently ahead of the front. High pressure
in the wake of the front will quickly shift eastward through Fri
night, allowing for fresh to strong southerly winds to develop
over the western half of the forecast waters as low pressure
tracks northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico to over northern
Florida, and to north of the area Sat and Sat night. These winds
will expand in coverage as they shift eastward ahead of a cold
front that will trail from the low over the western waters.

$$
Konarik
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