[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191759
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Mar 19 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING IN THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An Atlantic Ocean cold front is passing through 31N71W, to the NW
Bahamas, beyond the Straits of Florida. Expect near gale-force to
gale-force NW to N winds, and rough seas, from 29N northward from
the cold front westward to 77W. Elsewhere from the cold front
westward: strong to near gale-force NW to N winds, and rough seas,
from the Bahamas northward. Expect also from 29N northward between
the cold front and 65W: near gale-force to gale-force, and rough
seas. Elsewhere from 27N northward between the cold front and the
line 31N60W 27N70W: strong S to SW winds and rough seas. The
gale-force winds are forecast to slow down by Tuesday night, in
about 12 hours or so.

Mostly fresh to moderate broad surface anticyclonic wind flow,
and moderate seas, are elsewhere from 60W westward.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
from 25N northward between 64W and 73W. Broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and other isolated moderate to locally
strong, are elsewhere from 21N northward from 60W westward.

Mariners should monitor these hazardous marine conditions, and
plan their routes accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas
Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea near
10N14W, to 03N18W and 02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W, to
the Equator along 36W, to 02S42W, and to the Equator along 49W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 07N southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 11N southward from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the NW Bahamas, through the Straits of
Florida, to the coast of the northern parts of the Yucatan
Peninsula, curving into the SW Gulf of Mexico in the northern
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. High level moisture is
being pushed to 85W in the Gulf of Mexico, by the upper level
westerly wind flow from Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong precipitation is from 90W westward. The SPECIAL
FEATURES gale-force wind warning that is in the Atlantic Ocean is
associated with the cold front.

Fresh to strong NE winds are to the north of the cold front.
Moderate NE winds are to the south of the cold front, in the SW
corner of the area. Rough seas are from 22N to 26N. Moderate seas
are elsewhere. The SPECIAL FEATURES gale-force wind warning is
associated with the cold front.

A cold front extending across the Straits of Florida to near
Veracruz, Mexico will exit the Gulf region later this morning.
Fresh to strong winds and rough seas behind the front will
gradually diminish this afternoon. A low pressure is forecast to
develop over the NW Gulf near the Texas coast late on Thu, then
track east-northeast toward the NE Gulf by Fri pushing a cold
front across the basin. The low is expected to move inland
northern Florida late on Fri. This next frontal system will bring
increasing winds and seas across the Gulf waters, as well as
widespread showers and thunderstorms.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad moderate to fresh surface cyclonic wind flow spans the
Caribbean Sea. Rough seas are from 14N southward between 72W and
76W off the coast of Colombia. Moderate seas are elsewhere from
Jamaica southward from 80W eastward. Slight seas are in the
remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

High pressure NE of the area will support fresh to strong trade
winds across the eastern and central Caribbean through tonight.
Afterward, winds will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds as a
cold front moves across the western Atlantic. This front will push
southward across the northwest Caribbean today, then reach
eastern Cuba on Wed while dissipating. Fresh to strong northeast
to east winds will continue near the coast of Colombia through Sat
night while decreasing in coverage.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about
the gale-force wind warning for today, in the SW North Atlantic
Ocean.

A surface ridge passes through a 37N32W 1026 mb high pressure
center, to 31N42W 28754W, to 17N64W in the NE Caribbean Sea.
Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 10N northward.

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is between 40W and 50W from
20N northward. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the areas of
the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

Moderate to rough seas are within 360 nm to 450 nm on either side
of 16N24W 14N38W 11N60W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of
the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 11N to 27N
between 22W and 46W. Mostly fresh to some moderate winds are in
the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extending from 31N70W to the Straits of Florida will
reach from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas this afternoon,
then weaken as it reaches from near 31N56W to eastern Cuba by Wed
morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are ahead and behind
the front, with gale force winds over the waters north of 27N.
The gale force winds behind the front end this morning while those
east of the front end late this afternoon. A band of showers and
thunderstorms is related to the front. Weak low pressure may form
along the front near 30N56W on Thu morning, with the front
reaching northern Hispaniola. High pressure in its wake will
quickly shift eastward through Fri night, allowing for fresh to
strong southerly winds to develop over the western half of the
forecast waters as low pressure tracks northeastward from the Gulf
of Mexico to over northern Florida, and to north of the area Sat
and Sat night. These winds will expand in coverage as they shift
eastward ahead of a cold front that will trail from the low over
the western waters.

$$
mt/gr
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