[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Mar 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event...

Large NW swell has been moving through the central Atlantic Ocean.
The sea heights have been ranging from 12 feet to 16 feet, from
20N between 30W and 50W. Moderate to fresh cyclonic wind flow from
18 hours ago has given way to moderate or slower winds in the same
area. This swell will subside gradually, and it will move
northeastward today. The sea heights are expected to decrease in
height to less than 12 feet tonight.

...South Central Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning...

Currently: strong to near gale-force NE winds are and have been from
15N southward between 69W and 78W, including in the Gulf of
Venezuela. The surface pressure gradient is forecast to become
comparatively tighter tonight. Gale-force NE to E winds, and rough
seas, will affect the areas that are from 11N to 12N between 74W
and 75W, tonight.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
plan their routes accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas
Forecasts, and Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the
National Hurricane Center, at the websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 09N14W, to the Equator along 21W. The ITCZ continues to
03S13W, 02S40W 02S44W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from the line 02N50W-the Equator along 40W,
01S29W, to the ITCZ. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W
eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving through Texas, from the eastern sections of
the state to the Texas Big Bend and West Texas. Some areas of low
clouds, rainshowers, haze, and lower visibilities, are and have
been in the coastal plains/the coastal waters of the U.S.A. Gulf
coast states, from the Florida Big Bend to the Deep South of
Texas. Upper level SW wind flow is pushing high level moisture
from the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico toward the northeast.

Moderate to rough seas are from 27N southward between 90W and 94W.
Moderate seas are in much of the rest of the Gulf waters. Some
exceptions are from slight seas off the coast of Mexico near 20N,
and off the coast of the Tampa Florida metropolitan area. Moderate
to fresh SE winds are in much of the Gulf of Mexico. An exception
is for gentle winds within 150 nm of the Florida west coast.

The Bermuda high will slide eastward across the Atlantic through
the weekend, yet maintain a lingering ridge westward over the
western Atlantic and into the central Gulf through Sun. Moderate
to occasionally fresh SE winds are forecast over the majority of
the basin through today. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse
near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each night and early
morning hours. A weak cold front will enter the NW Gulf waters
today and slide eastward along 29N. A stronger cold front will
move across the area late this weekend into early next week,
resulting in an increase in winds and seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
ongoing Gale-Force Wind Warning, that is affecting the coastal
waters of Colombia.

Strong NE to E winds are elsewhere between 70W and 80W. Moderate
to fresh E to NE winds are from 70W eastward. Fresh to strong SE
winds are in the NW corner of the area from 19N southward from 84W
westward. Rough seas in general are from 14N southward between 74W
and 80W. Moderate seas cover the Caribbean Sea from Central
America eastward, and from 20N northward in the NW corner of the
area. Slight seas are in the rest of the area.

High pressure centered just SE of Bermuda will slide eastward
across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic over the
weekend. The lingering ridge will support fresh to strong winds
across the south-central and portions of the southeast Caribbean
through Tue. Winds off Colombia will briefly pulse to gale-force
tonight. Otherwise, fresh trade winds will pulse to fresh to
locally strong near the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage,
and S of Hispaniola through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the
Significant Swell event.

A surface trough passes through 31N34W 28N40W 23N50W 20N64W.
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and
isolated moderate to locally strong, are within 240 nm to 360 nm
on either side of the surface trough, and elsewhere from 20N to
25N between 60W and 80W.

A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 30N66W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow is to the northwest of the 31N34W 20N64W
surface trough.

Fresh NE winds are: from 13N to 23N from 27W eastward; from 15N
southward between 30W and 60W; and from the NE Caribbean Sea
islands to 24N between 56W and 65W. Moderate or slower winds are
in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

High pressure centered just SE of Bermuda will slide eastward and
into the eastern Atlantic through the weekend. A broad associated
ridge will persist westward across the area through most of the
forecast period. Rough seas in northerly swell dominating E of 60W
will gradually subside from W to E today. A weak cold front will
move into the NW waters Sat. A stronger cold front will enter the
offshore waters of NE Florida on Mon morning. A tightening
pressure gradient behind the front will support fresh to strong NW
to N winds late Mon into Tue off NE Florida and over the western
Atlantic, north of 28N. Conditions will improve by midweek.

$$
mt/ss
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