[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Mar 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell
has been moving through the central Atlantic Ocean. Large NW-N
swell of 8-14 ft covers the waters NW of a line from the Canary
Islands to the Cabo Verde Islands to 60W, highest near 31N37W. The
swell is forecast to decay to less than 12 ft by early Sat.

South Central Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A locally tight pressure
gradient between high pressure ridging N of the Caribbean and
lower pressure over northern South America will support brief gale
force winds in the south central Caribbean tonight offshore of
northern Colombia. Rough seas up to 12 ft will accompany the
winds.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
plan their routes accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecasts and Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the
National Hurricane Center at the websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea
near 14N13W to 00N28W. The ITCZ is S of the Equator. No
significant convection is noted N of the Equator.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends across the northern Gulf coast with moderate SE-S
flow across the basin, except gentle in the far NE Gulf including
Apalachee Bay. Seas are 5-8 ft in the western half of the Gulf due
to a prolonged SE fetch, and 3-5 ft in the eastern Gulf, except
1-3 ft in the far NE Gulf including Apalachee Bay. A cold front is
moving through the Texas Hill Country extending back across
northern Mexico, while a trough extends from central Georgia to
near New Orleans, Louisiana. Scattered thunderstorms are across
the SE near the surface trough and also near the front in Texas.

For the forecast, the Bermuda high will slide eastward across the
Atlantic through mon, yet maintain a lingering ridge westward
over the western Atlantic and into the central Gulf through Sun.
Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are expected over the
southern basin through early Sun. Fresh to locally strong winds
will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula each
evening and into the early morning hours. A cold front will move
into the NW Gulf Sun night and gradually shift S of the basin by
Tue evening. Increasing wind and seas are expected behind the
front Sun night through Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
ongoing Gale Warning that is affecting the coastal waters of
Colombia.

Ridging extends across the SW N Atlantic north of the Caribbean.
Fresh to strong winds are in the central Caribbean, except strong
to near-gale force in the south central Caribbean. Moderate to
fresh trades are found across the remainder of the basin. Seas are
7-11 ft in the south central to SW Caribbean, and 4-6 ft
elsewhere. No significant convection is found in the Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure centered just SE of Bermuda will
slide eastward across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic
over the weekend. The lingering ridge will support fresh to
strong winds across the south-central and portions of the
southeast Caribbean through Tue. Winds off Colombia will briefly
pulse to gale-force tonight. Otherwise, fresh trade winds will
pulse to fresh to locally strong across the Gulf of Honduras, the
Windward Passage, and S of Hispaniola through early Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the
Significant Swell event.

High pressure of 1022 mb is entered just S of Bermuda to near
Jupiter, Florida. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and 3-5 ft
seas in mixed swell are found under the ridge. Moderate to fresh
winds are S of 24N and W of 60W along with 5-7 ft seas, locally
strong across the approach to the Windward Passage.

An elongated surface trough, the remnants of a cold front,
extends from 31N30W to near the N coast of Puerto Rico. A surface
ridge is ahead of the trough from just N of the Canary Islands
through 22N35W to 20N50W. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the
open Atlantic waters, with significant swell as described above.

For the forecast, high pressure centered just SE of Bermuda will
slide eastward and into the east-central Atlantic through Mon
before becoming nearly stationary. A broad associated ridge will
persist westward across the area through Mon. Rough seas in
northerly swell dominating E of 60W will gradually subside
tonight. A cold front will enter the offshore waters of NE Florida
on Mon morning and reach from near Bermuda through the central
Bahamas by Tue morning. Fresh to strong S to SW winds are expected
N of 28N ahead of the front Sun night through Tue night, while
fresh to strong NW to N winds follow the front N of 27N Mon
through Tue.

$$
Lewitsky
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