[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151059
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Mar 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell:
Large NW swell is propagating across the central Atlantic. Seas of
12 to 16 ft along with moderate to fresh W to NW winds are
generally north of 27N between 31W and 51W. This swell will
gradually subside and retreat northeastward today and seas are
expected to drop below 12 ft this evening.

South-central Caribbean Gale Warning:
Tight pressure gradient between a 1007 mb Colombian Low and a 1023
mb Bermuda High will support fresh to strong NE to E winds across
the south-central Caribbean and near the ABC Islands through this
weekend. Local effects created by the mountain peaks nearby will
further enhance the pressure gradient to support 30 to 40 kt NE to
E winds off the coast near Barranquilla during the nighttime and
early morning hours tonight. Seas under these winds will peak
between 10 and 12 ft.

Mariners need to monitor these hazardous marine conditions and
plan their route accordingly. Please read the latest High Seas
and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane
Center at websites:
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https//www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, then reaches southward to 04N16W. The
ITCZ then continues southwestward to 03S26W to 02S41W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 07S to 00N between 24W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging associated with the Bermuda High extends across
Florida into the eastern half of the Gulf while lower pressures
lie west of 90W. The gradient between these two regions is
supporting moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas E of 90W
and fresh to strong SE winds between 90W and 95W. Seas in the area
of strongest winds W of 90W are moderate to rough.

For the forecast, surface ridging over the western Atlantic will
continue to exert its influence across the Gulf waters over the
next few days. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds are
forecast over the majority of the basin through today. Fresh to
locally strong winds will pulse near and to the NW of the Yucatan
Peninsula each night and early morning hours due to local effects.
A weak cold front will enter the NW Gulf waters today and slide
eastward. A stronger cold front will move across the area late
this weekend into early next week, resulting in an increase in
winds and seas behind the boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section about an ongoing
Gale Warning.

A 1023 mb Bermuda High near 32N65W continues to support a fair
trade-wind pattern across the entire Caribbean Sea. Outside the
Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas at 6 to
9 ft are seen at the central,eastern and portions of the southwest
basin, the Gulf of Honduras and in the Windward Passage. Moderate
with locally fresh E to ESE winds and 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere
in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the high pressure positioned north of the
Greater Antilles will shift eastward to the central and eastern
subtropical waters over the weekend. The area of high pressure
will support fresh to strong winds across the south-central and
portions of the southeast Caribbean through Tue. However, winds
off Colombia will pulse to gale-force tonight with seas building
to 12 ft. Otherwise, winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong
near the Gulf of Honduras, the Windward Passage, and S of
Hispaniola through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about
Significant Swell.

Aside from the aforementioned area of swell, the remainder
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of surface ridging. In
the SW N Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE to the
south of 25N. Over the E subtropical Atlantic, winds are gentle to
moderate from the NE, including the Canary and Cape Verde Islands.
Seas are moderate over this region. Otherwise, a remnant surface
trough is over the subtropical centrla Atlantic waters. See
special features for details on winds and seas over this region.

For the forecast west of 55W, broad high pressure and associated
ridge will persist across the area through most of the forecast
period. Rough seas E of 57W will gradually subside from W to E
today. The center of high pressure will shift eastward to the
central subtropical waters on Sat, thus enabling the tail of a
cold front to move into the NW waters. A stronger cold front will
enter the offshore waters of NE Florida on Mon morning. Tightening
pressure gradient behind the front will support fresh to strong
winds late Mon into Tue off NE Florida and over the western
Atlantic, north of 28N. Conditions will improve by midweek.

$$
Ramos
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