[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Mar 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, to the Equator along 18W. The ITCZ
continues to 01S20W, 03S30W, 03S38W. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is from 02N southward between 20W and
33W. Isolated moderate to locally strong also is from 07N
southward between 33W and 53W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in the coastal
waters of central Honduras. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
spans the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level moisture covers the area to
the north of 20N97W 23N90W, beyond NW Cuba. Comparatively drier
air in subsidence is to the south of the upper level moisture.

A stationary front is passing through 29N78W in the Atlantic
Ocean, through north central Florida, to SW Georgia/SE Alabama,
to SW Louisiana. A cold front continues from SW Louisiana, to
26N94W in the Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of NE Mexico along 25N,
and inland to 27N94W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds cover
the areas that are to the north of 20N97W 23N90W, to NW Cuba.

Moderate seas are in the central two-thirds of the area. Slight
seas are elsewhere. Moderate or slower winds cover the area.

Haze is being reported in the observations of interior Mexico
from the Texas Big Bend southward, and southeastward, to the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Volcanic ash is in the
air, from the volcano Popocatepetl.

A cold front over the NW Gulf will reach from central Florida to
the Yucatan peninsula by Sun morning before stalling and
dissipating over the Yucatan Channel Mon. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the
wake of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected ahead of the front. Conditions will improve early next
week as high pressure builds in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1030 mb high pressure center is in the Atlantic Ocean near
33N39W. A surface ridge extends from the 1030 mb high pressure
center, to the SE Bahamas, to the southeastern half of Cuba, to
the border of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize.

Fresh to strong NE winds are within 100 nm of the coast of
Colombia between 74W and 76W. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere from
Jamaica southward from 80W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are
in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas are from
Jamaica eastward, and from 15N to Jamaica between 76W and 80W.
Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

High pressure NE of the area combined with low pressure over
Colombia will support pulses of fresh to strong northeast to east
winds over the south-central Caribbean through Tue night, and in
the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. Fresh to locally strong
trades will also prevail over the southeastern Caribbean through
Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. A
weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel and western
Cuba late Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N65W, to 29N71W. A stationary front
continues from 29N71W, to north central Florida. Moderate seas are
from 60W westward, and from 13N northward between 50W and 60W.
Moderate to rough seas are from 13N southward between 50W and 60W.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 26N northward from 70W westward. Isolated moderate is from
24N northward between 60W and 70W. Fresh to strong SE winds are
from 29N northward from 75W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals
in inches, for the period that ended at 09/0000 UTC, are: 0.41 in
Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are 17N
northward between 50W and 70W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 19N to 28N between 43W and
53W. Weak upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to
locally strong convective precipitation, are from 29N northward
between 30W and 40W.

A 1030 mb high pressure center is near 33N39W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow is in the Atlantic Ocean, from the cold
front/stationary front eastward.

Rough seas in general cover much of the area that is from 50W
eastward. An exception is for moderate seas from 10N southward
from 30W eastward. to 28N between 30W and 50W. Another exception
has been for very rough seas from 19N to 25N between 17W and 24W.
Fresh to strong NE winds are from 12N to 26N from 45W eastward.
Fresh NE winds are from 14N southward between 20W and 55W.
Moderate to fresh anticyclonic wind flow is elsewhere 26N
northward from 48W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are
elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.

A cold front extending from 31N65W to 29N71W becomes stationary
to central Florida. The front will move across the waters north of
28N through Sat, exiting the forecast region by early Sat
evening. A stronger cold front is expected to emerge off the coast
of northeast Florida Sat night. This front is forecast to reach
from near Bermuda to western Cuba Sun night and from near 28N55W
to the southeastern Bahamas by Mon night. Scattered thunderstorms
are likely to precede this front. High pressure will build in the
wake of this front.

$$
mt/al
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