[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 090914
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Mar 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough moves off the coast of Africa near 07N12W to
00N18W. The ITCZ continues from 00N18W to 03S38W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between
20W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is over the NW Gulf. Fresh to locally strong winds
are near the coast of Texas as well as in the central Gulf.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere E of 90W, and light to
gentle elsewhere W of 90W. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in the
central Gulf, and mainly in the 2-4 ft range elsewhere E of 90W.
Seas of 3-5 ft are W of 90W.

For the forecast, the front will reach from central Florida to
the Yucatan peninsula by Sun morning before stalling and
dissipating over the Yucatan Channel Mon. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the
wake of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected ahead of the front. Conditions will improve early next
week as high pressure builds in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds are in the south central Caribbean as well
as the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to locally fresh winds generally
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range in the south
central Caribbean and 4-7 ft over the NW Caribbean. Seas of 4-5 ft
are elsewhere E of 80W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere W of 80W.

For the forecast, high pressure NE of the area combined with low
pressure over Colombia will support pulses of fresh to strong
northeast to east winds over the south-central Caribbean through
Tue night, and in the Gulf of Honduras through tonight. Fresh to
locally strong trades will also prevail over the southeastern
Caribbean through tonight. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail
elsewhere. A weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan
Channel and western Cuba late Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extending from 31N64W to 28N70W becomes stationary
to 28N72W, then a warm front to N Florida. Fresh winds are noted
off the coast of N Florida, N of the warm front. Light to gentle
winds are elsewhere N of the frontal boundary. Gentle to moderate
winds are W of 70W. Light to gentle winds are N of 20N between 50W
and 70W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over much of the waters E
of 40W, reaching strong speeds off the coast of Africa. Seas are
in the 8-12 ft range E of 50W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will move across the waters
north of 28N today, exiting the forecast region tonight. A
stronger cold front is expected to emerge off the coast of
northeast Florida tonight. This front is forecast to reach from
near Bermuda to western Cuba Sun night and from near 28N55W to the
southeastern Bahamas by Mon night. Scattered thunderstorms are
likely to precede this front. High pressure will build in the wake
of this front.

$$
AL
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