[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 082345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Mar 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2335 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 02N20W. The ITCZ
extends from 02N20W to 00N35W and to 00N50W. A few showers are
observed near the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1005 mb low pressure system is analyzed near 23N95W in the
western Gulf of Mexico, while a ridge dominates the remainder of
the basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring in the northwest and northern Gulf. The pressure
gradient between the ridge over the central Atlantic and lower
pressures in the western Gulf result in moderate to locally strong
southerly winds between 85W and 91W. The strongest winds are
occurring south of 24N. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, a cold front is starting to move off the Texas
coast. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the
central Gulf ahead of this cold front. The front will reach from
Port Charlotte, Florida to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by Sun morning,
before stalling and dissipating over the Yucatan Channel Mon.
Fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are
expected in the wake of the front. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected ahead of the front. Conditions will
improve Mon and Mon night as high pressure build in the wake of
the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends
southwestward into the Caribbean Sea maintaining primarily dry
conditions. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade
wind flow, are observed across the basin moving westward and
producing isolated passing showers.

The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures in northern South America result in fresh to strong
easterly trade winds in the south-central and SE Caribbean. Seas
in these waters are 4-7 ft. Fresh to strong easterly winds are
also noted in the Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of 4-7 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure NE of the area combined with the low
pressure over Colombia will support pulses of fresh to strong
northeast to east winds over the south-central Caribbean through
Tue night, and in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night. Fresh
to locally strong trades will also prevail over the southeastern
Caribbean through Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail elsewhere. A weakening cold front will approach the
Yucatan Channel and western Cuba late Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N69W and
continues southwestward to Cape Canaveral, Florida. A few showers
are seen near the frontal boundary. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found behind the front. The remainder
of the southwest north Atlantic (west of 55W) is dominated by a
weak gradient, resulting in light to gentle winds and moderate
seas.

A surface trough extends from 25N52W to near 15N55W. A few
showers are near the northern end of the trough axis. Elsewhere,
high pressure dominates the Atlantic forecast region. Fresh to
strong winds prevail over the waters E of 55W where the pressure
gradient is tighter between a high pressure center N of the area
and lower pressure within the equatorial trough. Seas in this area
are in the 8 to 12 ft range in a mix of N and NE swell.

For the forecast W of 55W, the above mentioned frontal boundary will
move waters north of 28N through Sat, exiting the forecast region
by early Sat evening. A stronger cold front is expected to emerge
off the coast of northeast Florida Sat night. This front is
forecast to reach from near Bermuda to western Cuba Sun night and
from near 28N55W to the southeastern Bahamas by Mon night.
Scattered thunderstorms are likely to precede this front. High
pressure will build in the wake of this front.

$$
Delgado
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