[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Mar 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event:
Tight pressure gradient between a strong 1042 mb high pressure at
the north Atlantic near 40N55W, and a quasi-stationary surface
trough near 26N47W is supporting strong to near gale-force NE
winds and seas of 12 to 17 ft N of 24N between 46W and 65W. These
hazardous marine conditions will persist through Sun evening. Once
the high has moved east of 45W on late Sun night, a decreasing
pressure gradient will allow both winds and seas to gradually
subside early next week.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of
Guinea-Bissau and Guinea, then extends southwestward across
02N25W to 02N33W. Scattered moderate convection is present south
of the trough from the Equator to 05N between 10W and 23W, and
near the trough from 01N to 03N between 28W and 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front reaches eastward from a 1017 mb low just east
of New Orleans across the Florida Panhandle to beyond northeastern
Florida. A surface trough runs southwestward from this same low to
the southwestern Gulf. Patchy showers are seen within 100 nm along
either side of these features. Across the southeastern Gulf,
including the Florida Straits, convergent southerly winds are
coupling with strong divergent flow aloft to trigger scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh
SE to S winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft dominate the eastern and
central Gulf. Gentle ENE to SE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas prevail
over the western Gulf.

For the forecast, the stationary front will start to move again
later tonight and should be east of the area by Sun morning,
while the surface trough dissipates overnight. Expect moderate SE
winds and moderate seas over the central and eastern Gulf Mon
into Tue, between high pressure over the Carolinas and a trough
over the southwest Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Trade winds continue across the entire Caribbean Basin. Fresh to
strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are found across the
central basin, locally near-gale winds are also present off
northwestern Colombia. Moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE
to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist at the eastern basin, Gulf
of Honduras and near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate E
to ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the
Gulf.

For the forecast, a strong 1042 mb high over the northwestern
Atlantic will support pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds in
the south-central Caribbean, and Gulf of Honduras through of
midweek next week. Fresh to strong NE winds at the north-central
Caribbean will diminish to between moderate and fresh late Sun.
Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about a
Significant Swell Event.

Convergent southerly winds to the south of a cold front off the
Georgia-South Carolina coast are generating scattered showers and
thunderstorms off the northeastern Florida coast. A stationary
front runs southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across
31N45W to 27N51W, then continues as a surface trough to near
23N53W. Another quasi-stationary surface trough is to the east
near 26N47W. Enhanced by a pronounced upper-level low in the
vicinity near 28N51W, scattered moderate convection is flaring up
north of 23N between 38W and 53W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Other than the area mentioned in the Special Features section,
fresh with locally strong ENE to SE winds and seas at 8 to 11 ft
exist north of 20N between 46W/51W and 75W, including the
southeast Bahamas. Farther west, gentle to moderate SE to S winds
and 4 to 7 ft seas are evident from the central Bahamas northward
to beyond 31N. For the eastern Atlantic including both the Canary
and Cabo Verde Islands, fresh to strong NNE to E to SE winds and
seas at 7 to 11 ft in large mixed swells dominate north of 14N
between the Africa coast and 46W. To the south, moderate with
locally fresh NNE to ENE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate
mixed swells exist from 05N to 14N between the central Africa
coast and 42W. Across the western tropical Atlantic from 05N to
20N/25N between 42W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate
with locally fresh winds along with 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate NE
swell exist. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft
in gentle to moderate mixed swell prevail for the rest of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough near
26N47W will dissipate through mid week, allowing winds and seas
to gradually diminish. Farther west, winds and seas will increase
off northeastern Florida by mid week ahead of the next cold front
expected to move across the region Thu.

$$

Chan
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