[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030959
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Mar 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event:
Tight pressure gradient between a strong 1041 mb high pressure
centered to the SE of Nova Scotia, and a quasi-stationary surface
trough over the central subtropical Atlantic waters is supporting
strong to near gale-force NE winds and very rough seas of 12 to 17
ft N of 23N between 47W and 64W. These hazardous marine conditions
will persist through Mon evening. The center of high pressure will
move to the NE Atlantic waters late on Mon while weakening. This
will result in a weaker pressure gradient that will allow both
winds and seas to gradually diminish through late Thu.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from 11N15W then extends
southwestward to 05N20W to 02N32W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is present from 06S to 06N between 07W and 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure centered SE of Nova Scotia extends a ridge
SW into the Gulf, supporting light to gentle E to SE winds and
slight seas basin-wide. Seas are slight and up to 3 ft. Moist air
moving over colder waters along the northern Gulf is resulting in
patchy fog from Corpus Christi to Tallahassee, Florida adjacent
waters.

For the forecast, foggy conditions are expected to continue through
late this morning. Otherwise, expect moderate to fresh SE winds
over the central and eastern Gulf tonight into Tue evening,
between high pressure over the Carolinas and a surface trough that
will move across the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to E
winds will resume across the basin Tue night through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong high pressure of 1041 mb to the SE of Nova Scotia extends a
ridge S into the Caribbean. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and a 1010 mb low over NW Colombia continue to support fresh
to strong NE to E winds across the central basin, accelerating to
near gale-force speed along the coast of Colombia. Seas over this
region are 5-7 ft, except 8-10 ft over Colombia adjacent waters.
Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas are ongoing over the
E basin while SE winds of the same magnitude are over the far NW
Caribbean, strongest in the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will
support pulses of fresh to strong NE to E winds over the south-
central Caribbean and in the Gulf of Honduras through the end of
the week. Fresh to strong NE to E winds in the north-central
Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds tonight.
Gentle to moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about a
Significant Swell Event.

Other than the area mentioned in the Special Features section,
moderate to fresh E to SE winds are ongoing E of the Bahamas to
65W along with rough seas in the 8-10 ft range. West of 75W, winds
are gentle to moderate from the SE with slight to moderate seas.
East of the surface trough mentioned in the Special Features, and
over the E subtropical Atlantic, a tight pressure gradient is
present between a strong high centered just S of the Azores and a
pair of troughs over NW Africa. This is resulting in fresh to
strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas extending as far
as 13N, including the Cape Verde Islands. Over the tropical
Atlantic W of 40W, winds are gentle to moderate with seas to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, strong to near-gale force NE winds and
rough to very rough seas associated with a surface trough over
the central subtropical Atlantic waters will persist across the
offshore waters east of 65W through Mon night. Afterward, moderate
to fresh NE to E winds and rough seas to 11 ft will gradually
diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by Wed evening while seas
subside below 8 ft late Thu. Otherwise, winds and seas will
increase off NE Florida by mid week ahead of the next cold front
expected to move across the region Thu through Sat.

$$
Ramos
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