[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 022314
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Mar 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Strong high pressure of 1041 mb
located well N of the area over the western Atlantic combined
with a meandering surface trough with axis now along 48W/49W and
N of 20N is supporting strong to near gale-force NE winds and
seas of 12 to 16 ft across the waters N of 25N and W of the
trough to about 62W. These marine conditions will persist on Sun,
affecting mainly the area N of 25N and west of the trough, with
axis along 46W/47W, to about 60W. On Sun, seas are forecast to peak
16 or 17 ft. Once the high has moved east of 45W on Sun night, a
decreasing pressure gradient will allow both winds and seas to
gradually subside early next week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southwestward from 11N15W to 02N30.
No significant convection is noted at this time, and no segments
of the ITCZ are analyzed over the tropical Atlantic.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front draped across the Florida Panhandle extends to
1020 mb low pressure located over southern Alabama, then continues
across the N Gulf to a 1016 mb low pressure situated near 27N91W.
A surface trough runs from the latter low center to near 20N93W.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted over
the eastern Gulf, but mainly N of 24N and E of 90W. Latest surface
observations and scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong
winds across the NE Gulf in the vicinity of the frontal boundary
and active convection. Light to gentle S winds are south of the
front and E of the trough over the eastern Gulf while light to
gentle northerly winds prevail over the NW Gulf and W of the
low/trough. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds
and seas could be higher near thunderstorms.

For the forecast, another low pressure area will form over north-
central Mexico on Sun, allowing the front to lift northward as a
warm front over the northwest Gulf Mon. Expect moderate SE winds
and moderate seas over the central and eastern Gulf Mon into
Tue, between high pressure over the Carolinas and a trough over
the southwest Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong NE winds in
the Caribbean waters just S of Puerto Rico to about 15N, including
the Anegada and Mona Passages. Similar wind speeds are Oslo
noted in the south-central Caribbean, where seas are in the 8 to
10 ft range. The remainder of the central Caribbean is
characterized by 5 to 7 ft seas and mainly fresh winds. In the
western Caribbean, winds are gentle to moderate with 3 to 5 ft
seas. Low-topped trade wind showers are noted across the basin
moving westward.

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the area over
the western Atlantic will support pulses of fresh to strong NE to
E winds over the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of
Honduras through mid week. Fresh to strong NE winds in the north-
central Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds late
Sun. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a
Significant Swell Event.

Strong to near-gale force NE winds and rough to very rough seas
persist across the west-central Atlantic between a trough currently
located along 48W/49W and strong high pressure north of the area.
This high pressure of 1041 mb located near 40N59W extends a ridge
toward Florida, the Bahamas and Greater Antilles. A shear-line
is analyzed W of the surface trough and extends from 31N48W to
near 24N60W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted on
either side of the trough, mainly N of 24N between 40W and 52W.
In the eastern Atlantic, a 1033 mb high pressure is now situated
S of the Azores near 35N29W. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8
to 12 ft are present around the southern circulation of this
system, especially N of 15N E of 30W to the coast of W Africa.

For the forecast W of 55W, the above mentioned trough will dissipate
through mid week, allowing winds and seas to gradually diminish.
Farther west, winds and seas will increase off northeast Florida
by mid week ahead of the next cold front expected to move across
the region Thu.

$$
GR
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