[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021714
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Mar 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Strong 1041 mb high pressure
well north of the area is going to slide eastward across the
north- western Atlantic over the next few days. Meanwhile, a
persistent surface trough is stationary southeast of Bermuda
between 40W and 50W. The tightening gradient between these two
features is supporting strong NE winds north of 24N between 44W
and 61W. Winds are locally near-gale force along 30N, and increase
in speed north of area. The combination of large wind waves and
northeasterly swell has already built seas to 12-15 ft north of
25N between 49W and 61W. Through Sun, seas will build to peak wave
heights of 17 ft. Once the high has moved east of 45W on Sun
night, a decreasing pressure gradient will allow both winds and
seas to gradually subside early next week.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends southwestward from 11N16W to 02N29W.
No significant convection is noted at this time, and no segments
of the ITCZ are analyzed over the tropical Atlantic.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front draped across the Florida Panhandle extends to
1020 mb low pressure near 30N86W then continues across the N Gulf
to 1016 mb low pressure near 27N91W. Scattered moderate
convection is north of 27N between 83W and 90W. The latest surface
observations indicated fresh to strong winds across the NE Gulf
in the vicinity of the frontal boundary and active convection.
South of the front winds are out of the S, and north of the front
winds are out of the NE. The south-east and south-central Gulf
waters are experiencing gentle to moderate SE flow, with the
western Gulf experiencing gentle N flow. Seas are 2-4 ft across
the Gulf of Mexico.

For the forecast, another low pressure area will form over north-
central Mexico Sun, allowing the front to lift northward as a
warm front over the northwest Gulf Mon. Expect moderate SE winds
and moderate seas over the central and eastern Gulf Mon into Tue,
between high pressure over the Carolinas and a trough over the
southwest Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The previous Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia has expired. However, fresh to strong E winds
and 8-10 ft seas continue in these waters. The remainder of the
central Caribbean is characterized by 5-7 ft seas and mainly
fresh trades, except off the southern coast of Hispaniola where
trades are pulsing to fresh. In the eastern Caribbean, trades are
moderate to fresh with 4-7 ft seas. In the western Caribbean,
trades are gentle to moderate with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the area over
the western Atlantic will support pulses of fresh to strong NE to
E winds over the south-central Caribbean and in the Gulf of
Honduras through mid week. Fresh to strong NE winds in the north-
central Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds late
Sun. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section for information on a
Significant Swell Event.

A dissipating cold front extends from 31N49W to 25N65W. Scattered
showers are along the front north of 28N. Fresh to strong NE winds
prevail behind the front north of 20N to the Bahamas, where winds
slow to moderate speeds and turn to a SE direction. Seas greater
than 8 ft are north of a line from 31N48W to 18N63W to 31N78W.
Ahead of the dissipating front, a sharp surface trough extends
from 29N48W to 20N47W. Scattered showers are near the trough.

In the eastern Atlantic, satellite scatterometer data shows fresh
to strong E winds north of 20N east of 38W. Satellite altimeter
captured 8-12 ft seas north of 15N east of 45W in NE swell. Elsewhere
in the tropical Atlantic, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-7
ft seas in open waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, expect increasing NE winds and
building seas northeast of the Bahamas and southeast of Bermuda
into early next week between high pressure north of the area and a
broad trough between 40W and 50W north of 21N. Looking ahead, the
trough will dissipate and the high pressure will lift to the
northeast, although fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas
will persist north of 25N and east of 65W into mid-week.

$$
Mahoney
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