[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311013
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jan 31 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure offshore North Carolina will
move E to SE along 30-32N in Fri, before lifting NE away from the
area. Strong to gale-force cyclonic winds will accompany this low
pressure for waters N of 24N tonight into Fri. Peak seas are
forecast to build to 12 to 18 ft north of 27N between 60W and
75W. Marine conditions will improve considerably Sat as a weak
frontal system moves E across the region.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast
near 08N13W and extends to 04N21W. An ITCZ continues westward
from 04N21W to 02N31W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed near the monsoon trough from 02N to 06N and between 16W
and 24W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends across the basin from a 1023 mb
high over the northwest Gulf near 27N94W. Light to gentle
anticyclonic flow around the high pressure and slight to
moderate seas prevail across most of the basin, although moderate
NE winds are ongoing in the far NE Gulf.

For the forecast, aside from some fresh NE winds in the NE Gulf
today, quiescent marine conditions will prevail through Fri as
high pressure dominates. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the western Gulf
Fri night, then spread east into Sun, in advance of the next cold
front. By Sun night, this cold front is likely be crossing the
Gulf, with strong W to NW winds behind it.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The stationary front and surface trough in the far NE Carribbean
have dissipated early this morning. Mainly gentle to moderate
trades dominate, but fresh to strong NE to E winds are occurring
offshore Colombia, fresh NE winds are offshore Nicaragua, and
moderate to fresh winds are offshore southern Hispaniola. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft in the SW basin, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will continue
offshore Nicaragua into tonight. The pressure gradient across the
central Caribbean will force fresh to locally strong NE winds
during the late nights and early mornings north of Colombia
through Thu night. Elsewhere, winds and seas are forecast to be
quiescent through Sat. A cold front forecast to enter the NW
Caribbean Sun night, preceded by fresh southerly winds to the W of
75W.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning
beginning Thu for portions of Atlantic waters S of Bermuda.

A cold front extends from 31N50W to the Mona Passage with a weak
prefrontal from 31N48W to the Virgin Islands. Scattered moderate
convection and strong S winds are occurring ahead of the
prefrontal trough N of 24N and W of 45W. Fresh to locally strong
W to NW winds are occurring behind the front to 60W, N of 29N.
Rough to very rough seas are noted ahead and behind the front
north of 24N between 46W and 72W. Low pressure has moved off the
coast of North Carolina early this morning and SW to W winds S of
this low are now fresh N of 28N and W of 74W. The rest of the
tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive subtropical ridge
positioned near 34N32W. The pressure gradient between the
aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics
result in moderate to fresh E trade winds south of 19N and
moderate to rough seas. North of 19N, moderate or less winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front in the SW waters will
stall then dissipate by Thu. Strong W to NW winds will be behind
the front N of 27N and E of 60W today. Low pressure offshore North
Carolina will move E to SE along 30-32N in Fri, before lifting NE
away from the area. Marine conditions will improve considerably
Sat as a weak frontal system moves E across the region.

$$
Konarik
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