[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311625
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jan 31 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1605 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1010 mb low pressure system is located
offshore North Carolina and will move E-SE along 30-32N on Fri,
before lifting NE away from the area. Strong to gale-force
cyclonic winds will accompany this low pressure for waters N of
24N late tonight into Fri. Peak seas are forecast to build to 12
to 18 ft north of 26N between 55W and 75W. Marine conditions will
improve considerably Sat as a weak frontal system moves E across
the region.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends
from 06N21W to 03N35W and to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed south of the monsoon trough to 03N and east of 17W.
Similar convection is noted near the ITCZ and west of 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high pressure system remains anchored in the western
Gulf of Mexico, dominating the basin. No deep convection is seen
in the Gulf. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned
ridge and a strengthening low off the Carolinas sustain moderate
to fresh NW winds north of 25N and east of 92W. Seas in these
waters are 3-5 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, aside from some fresh NE winds in the NE Gulf
today, quiescent marine conditions will prevail through Fri as
high pressure dominates. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop over the western Gulf
Fri night, then spread east into Sun, in advance of the next cold
front. By Sun night, this cold front will likely cross the Gulf,
with strong to near gale-force W to NW winds behind it.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating cold front extends from Puerto Rico to 17N71W,
followed by a surface trough to Panama near 09N80W. The cool and
dry continental air spilling behind the surface boundaries result
in stratocumulus clouds dominating the western and southwestern
Caribbean, while fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail in the
rest of the basin. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are evident in
the south-central and southwestern Caribbean, with the strongest
winds occurring in the offshore NW Colombian and Nicaraguan
waters. Seas are 5-8 ft in the areas described. Moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the
Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will continue
offshore OF Nicaragua through Thu morning, behind a dissipating
frontal trough. The pressure gradient across the central
Caribbean will force fresh to locally strong NE winds during the
late nights and early mornings north of Colombia through Thu
night. Elsewhere, winds and seas are forecast to be quiescent
through Sat. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Caribbean
Sun night, preceded by fresh southerly winds to the W of 75W.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning
beginning Thu for portions of Atlantic waters S of Bermuda.

The strengthening low pressure system off the Carolinas sends a
cold front southward that reaches the NW Bahamas and central Cuba.
The frontal boundary is embedded in a dry continental airmass that
suppresses the development of deep convection. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass depict fresh to strong westerly winds
north of 26N and west of 72W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft.

Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N41W to 21N60W, where it
becomes a dissipating cold front to Puerto Rico. A pre-frontal
trough is noted from the central Lesser Antilles to 27N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is seen on satellite imagery near
and ahead of these boundaries. Fresh to locally strong southerly
winds are found ahead of the front to 40W and north of 25N. Seas
in the area described are 6-11 ft. Fresh westerly winds and seas
of 8-13 ft are present behind the cold front to 60W and north of
29N.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of
an extensive subtropical ridge centered over the Iberian
peninsula. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8
ft are present south of 17N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 24N55W to Puerto Rico
will stall through tonight, then dissipate by Thu. Otherwise weak
high pressure and moderate to large NW swell will prevail across
the remaining waters through tonight. Low pressure offshore North
Carolina will move E-SE along 31N-33N through Fri, before lifting
NE away from the area. Strong to gale-force cyclonic winds will
accompany this broad low pressure for waters N of 24N tonight
into Fri. Marine conditions will improve considerably Sat as a
weak frontal system moves E across the region.

$$
Delgado
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