[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310435
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jan 31 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning:
A complex low pressure will exit the Carolina coast tonight,
then move eastward along 32N and strengthen through Thu night.
Strong to gale- force W to SW winds are anticipated north of 24N
Wed night through Fri as the broad circulation moves across the
area. Peak seas are forecast to build to 12 to 18 ft north of
28N between 61W and 74W.  Marine conditions will improve
considerably Sat and Sat night as the next weak frontal system
moves E across the region.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast
near 08N13W and extends southwestward to 04N21W. An ITCZ
continues westward from 04N21W through 02N31W to 00N43W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed near the monsoon
trough from 02N to 06N and between 16W and 24W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ south of 05N between
28W and 37W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends across the basin from a 1023 mb
high over the northwest Gulf near 27N95W. Light to gentle
anticyclonic flow around the high pressure and slight to
moderate seas prevail across the entire basin.

For the forecast,  a weak cold front will move southeastward
across the NE Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wed. Aside from
that, quiescent marine conditions will prevail into Fri night
over the Gulf as high pressure dominates. Fresh to strong SE to
S winds and showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
over the W central Gulf Sat in advance of the next cold front,
and shift eastward into Sun. By Sun night, this cold front may
be crossing the Gulf, with strong W to NW winds behind it.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front stretches across Hispaniola with a surface
trough extending across the Leeward Islands to near 16N64W.
Fresh to strong NE winds are observed off the coast of Colombia,
along with moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas
across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE winds
are also observed in a recent scatterometer pass within the
Windward passage. Elsewhere across the basin, gentle to moderate
N to NE winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh locally to strong N winds will continue
W of 80W into Wed night. The pressure gradient across the
central Caribbean will force fresh to locally strong NE winds
during the late nights and early mornings north of Colombia
through Thu night. Elsewhere, winds and seas are forecast to be
quiescent through Sat. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW
Caribbean Sun night, preceded by fresh southerly winds to the W
of 75W.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N54W to eastern Hispaniola with a
prefrontal trough analyzed from 30N52W to the Leeward Islands.
Scattered moderate convection is observed east of the front to
45W, north of 22N. Strong to near-gale southerly winds are noted
ahead of the front north of 24N and west of 49W, while fresh to
strong W to NW winds are observed behind the front to 64W and
north of 27N. Rough to very rough seas are noted ahead and
behind the front north of 24N between 47W and 72W.
The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive
subtropical ridge positioned near 34N32W. The pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep
tropics result in moderate to fresh E trade winds south of
20N and moderate to rough seas. Elsewhere north of 20N, moderate
or less winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from
27N55W to Dominican Republic will move SE and reach from 23N55W
to Puerto Rico Wed, then stall and gradually dissipate. Near
gale- force S to SW winds will continue east of the front and
north of 28N tonight, with strong NW winds behind the front
north of 27N. Complex low pressure will exit the Carolina coast
tonight, then move eastward along 32N and strengthen through Thu
night. Strong to gale- force W to SW winds are anticipated north
of 24N Wed night through Fri as the broad circulation moves
across the area. Marine conditions will improve considerably Sat
and Sat night as the next weak frontal system moves E across the
region.

$$
Nepaul
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