[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jan 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning:
A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N58W to the Dominican Republic. Scattered moderate
convection is seen near and up to 150 nm east of this feature.
Near-gale to gale-force southerly winds are noted ahead of this
front N of 28N and W of 50W. Sea heights will peak at 11 to 14 ft
under the strongest winds. These winds and seas will progress
eastward along with the front to near 45W through tonight. The
front should start to weaken on Wednesday which will allow winds
and seas to gradually subside.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noss.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Sierra Leone coast
just south of Freetown, then reaches west-southwestward to
03N24W. An ITCZ continues westward from 03N24W through 02N35W to
north of Macapa, Brazil at 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed near the monsoon trough from 03N to 05N and between
16W and 22W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted up to
180 nm north and 100 nm south of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1026 mb high
over southern Texas to the Florid Straits. Light winds and seas of
1 to 3 ft are present at the northwestern and west-central Gulf.
Gentle NW to N winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, a cold front will move southeastward across the
northeastern Gulf later tonight through Wed with fresh NW winds.
Aside from that, quiescent marine conditions will prevail into Fri
night over the Gulf as high pressure continue to dominate.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong SE to S winds and active weather
are expected to develop over the west-central Gulf Sat in advance
of the next cold front, which will shift eastward through Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front stretches southwestward from Hispaniola to
near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border. Patchy showers are occurring
near and up to 100 nm northwest of this front. Moderate to fresh
with locally strong N winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are found near
this front at the west-central basin, and near Jamaica and the
Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate N winds and 3 to 6 ft seas
are present at the northwestern basin. Fresh to strong NE winds
and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist offshore from northwestern Colombia.
Light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are seen at the
northeastern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and seas at
4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds will continue W of 80W
and within 150 nm N of the stationary front through Wed night.
This front will drift southward as a cold front to the Nicaragua-
Panama border Thu morning before gradually dissipate Thu afternoon
and evening. The pressure gradient across the central Caribbean
will cause fresh to locally strong NE winds during the late
nights and early mornings north of Colombia through Thu night.
Elsewhere, winds and seas are forecast to be quiescent through
Sat. A cold front is likely to enter the northwestern Caribbean
Sun night, preceded by fresh southerly winds to the W of 75W.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features Section about a Gale Warning
at the central Atlantic.

East and southeast of the aforementioned cold front in the Special
Features section, a surface trough runs northeastward from near
the Leeward Islands to 31N53W. Scattered showers are found near
and up to 100 nm east of this feature. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic
Basin. A large dome of 1024 mb high near 28N33W is promoting
gentle to moderate NNE to E to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in
moderate NW swell north of 20N between the Africa coast and 45W,
including the Canary Islands. Outside the Gale Warning area,
fresh to strong southerly winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are noted
north of 25N between 45W and the cold front. Behind the cold
front, fresh to strong NNW to NW winds and seas at 8 to 13 ft in
large NW swell exist north of 26N and west to 70W. Farther west,
gentle to moderate NNE to ESE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate
N swell are found north of 20N between 70W and the
Georgia/Florida coast, including the Bahamas. From 20N to 25N/26N
between 45W and 70W, moderate to fresh S to SW to NW winds and
seas at 6 to 8 ft are evident. For the Tropical Atlantic from 06N
to 20N between the central Africa coast and Lesser Antilles,
including the Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds
and 6 to 8 ft seas in moderate mixed swells are observed. Light to
gentle winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells
prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
move southeastward and reach from 23N55W to the northeast of
Puerto Rico Wed morning, then stall and gradually dissipate.
Strong NW winds will continue behind the front and north of 27N
through tonight. Complex low pressure will exit the Carolina
coast tonight and move eastward along 33N-32N and strengthen
through Thu, then move eastward along 32N-31N Fri  Strong to near
gale-force W to SW winds are anticipated north of 24N Wed evening
through Fri as the broad low pressure moves across the area.
Marine conditions will improve considerably Sat and Sat night as
the next weak frontal system moves eastward across the region.

$$

Chan
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net