[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301619
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jan 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1605 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N58W to
northern Hispaniola. Gale force southerly winds are developing
ahead of this front N of 29N and W of 52W. These winds will
prevail and progress as the front moves E, then diminish below
gale late today. Seas of 11 to 14 ft are expected within the gale
force wind area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W and continues westward to 05N19W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N19W to 01N33W and then to 02N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 01N to 06N and east of 26W.
Similar convection is noted south of the ITCZ and west of 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1024 mb high pressure system located over the NW Gulf of Mexico
dominates the basin. The cool and dry continental airmass moving
across the Gulf is producing a vast layer of stratocumulus clouds,
but no deep convection. The relaxed pressure gradient allows for
mainly light to gentle anticyclonic winds. Seas of 4-6 ft are
present south of 26N and east of 91W, while slight seas are
prevalent elsewhere.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will move eastward across the
NE Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wed bringing with it fresh NW
winds. Aside from that, quiescent marine conditions will prevail
into Fri night over the Gulf as high pressure dominates. Looking
ahead, fresh to strong SE to S winds and active weather are
expected to develop over the W central Gulf Sat in advance of the
next cold front, and shift eastward through Sat night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front divides the Caribbean Sea, stretching from
Haiti to southern Nicaragua. The cool and dry continental airmass
supports stratocumulus clouds behind the frontal boundary. A
prefrontal trough stretches from the Leeward Islands to 31N55W
result in a few showers affecting the island arc. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong northerly
winds behind the stationary front, south of 20N. Seas in these
waters are 5-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh E-NE winds and seas
of 4-7 ft are present in the south-central and SW Caribbean.
Moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh N winds will continue W of 80W and within 150
nm N of a cold front extending from Haiti to SE Nicaragua through
Wed night. The front will drift S to the Nicaragua-Costa Rica
border and gradually dissipate through Thu morning. The pressure
gradient across the central Caribbean will force fresh to locally
strong NE winds during the late nights and early mornings north
of Colombia through Thu night. Elsewhere, winds and seas are
forecast to be quiescent into late week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features Section for details on a Gale Warning over
portions of Atlantic waters SE of Bermuda today.

A cold front extends from 31N58W to northern Hispaniola. A
prefrontal trough is analyzed from the Leeward Islands to 31N55W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident north of 24N, east of the
front to 51W. Aside from the area of gales, a recent scatterometer
satellite pass show fresh to near gale-force S-SW winds are
ongoing north of 21N and between the front and 45W. Seas in these
waters are 8-14 ft, with the highest seas near 31N54W. Behind the
front, fresh to strong N winds are found north of 23N and west to
73W. Seas are 8-13 ft in the area described, with the highest seas
occurring near 31N68W. Elsewhere to the west of the front,
moderate or weaker northerly winds and moderate seas prevail.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive
subtropical ridge positioned near 29N25W. The pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep
tropics result in moderate to fresh easterly trade winds south of
24N and seas of 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, slight to gentle winds and
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
reach from 24N55W to the Virgin Islands Wed morning. Gale to near
gale- force S to SW winds will continue east of the front and
north of 27N through this afternoon, with strong NW winds behind
the front north of 27N. Conditions will improve Wed, when the cold
front moves east of 55W. Complex low pressure will exit the
Carolina coast tonight and move eastward along 31N-32N through
Fri. Strong to near gale- force W winds are anticipated north of
24N Wed through Fri. Marine conditions will improve considerably
Sat and Sat night as the next weak frontal system moves E across
the region.

$$
Delgado
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