[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301014
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jan 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N61W to Haiti.
Gale force southerly winds are developing ahead of this front N of
29N and W of 55W. These winds will prevail and progress as the
front moves E, then diminish some tonight. Seas of 11 to 14 ft
are expected within the gale force wind area. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends across West Africa and crosses into to
Atlantic Ocean along the coast Sierra Leone near 08N13W, then
terminates near 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
01N30W to near the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N40W
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 05N between
22W and 27W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 25N94W to the SW corner of the
Yucatan Peninsula, south of 1025 mb high pressure centered off
southwest Louisiana. This pattern is supporting mainly gentle N
winds across the basin, except light and variable over the far NW
Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the SE Gulf and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere.
Dry conditions are preventing any convection.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will cross the NE Gulf of Mexico
tonight through Wed bringing with it fresh NW winds. Aside from
that, quiescent marine conditions will prevail into Fri night
over the Gulf as high pressure dominates. Looking ahead, fresh to
strong SE to S winds are likely to develop over the Gulf Sat in
advance of another cold front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from Haiti to the Honduras-Nicaragua border.
Fresh to strong N winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft follow the front in
the NW Caribbean. Ahead of the front, S of 16N, moderate to strong
trades are ongoing with seas of 5 to 7 ft. N of 16N, over the
north-central and NE Caribbean, mainly gentle winds prevail with
seas of 2 to 4 ft. No significant convection is occurring.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds behind the cold front
will continue through tonight, when the cold front will dissipate.
A pressure gradient across the central Carribbean will force
fresh to locally strong NE winds late nights and early mornings
north of Colombia through Thu night. Elsewhere, winds and seas are
forecast to be quiescent into late week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features Section for details on a Gale Warning over
portions of Atlantic waters SE of Bermuda today.

A cold front extends from 31N61W to Haiti. Scattered moderate
convection is noted N of 24N, along and E of the front, extending
to 55W. Aside from the area of gales, strong S to SW winds are
ongoing in the same area as the scattered convection. Behind the
front, fresh to N winds are ongoing N of 25N and W to 75W.
Elsewhere to the W of the front, mainly moderate N winds prevail.
Seas N of 24N between 55W and 75W are 8 to 12 ft, with peak seas
around 13 ft near 31N70W and 31N55W.

For the remainder of Atlantic waters, a subtropical ridge
associated with a 1025 mb high pressure center near 27N35W is
dominating. Moderate to fresh trades dominate waters S of 23N,
with mainly gentle winds to the N. Seas are 5 to 8 ft, highest E
of the Windward Islands between 35W and 55W.

For the forecast west of 55W, conditions will improve Wed when
the aforementioned cold front moves east of our waters. A
developing low will exit the Carolina coast tonight and move along
our 31N border through Fri. Strong to near gale W winds are
anticipated mainly north of 24N Wed through Fri. Conditions Sat
and Sat night should have moderate or weaker winds for forecast
waters.

$$
Konarik
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net