[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300334
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jan 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from southeast of
Bermuda near 31N63W to the Windward Passage. Gale force S to SW
winds are forecast to occur from early Tue morning through Tue
afternoon within 180 nm east of the front and north of 29.5N. By
early Tue evening when the gales end, the front is forecast to
extend from 31N52W to near the Mona Passage. Seas of 11 to 13 ft
are expected within the gale force wind area. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends across West Africa and crosses into to
Atlantic Ocean along the coast Sierra Leone near 08N13W, then
terminates near 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to
01N30W to near the mouth of the Amazon River near 00N40W
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 04N between
24W and 26W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from 27N93W to the northwest corner of
the Yucatan Peninsula, south of 1025 mb high pressure centered off
southwest Louisiana. This pattern is supporting gentle breezes and
slight seas across the northwest Gulf. Moderate N winds and 4 to 6
ft seas persist elsewhere, possible reaching 7 ft in the Yucatan
Channel. Dry air prevails across the Gulf following a cold front
that moved through the basin yesterday, precluding any major fog
development.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will cross the northeast Gulf
of Mexico Wed into Wed night bringing with it fresh NW winds.
Aside from that, quiescent marine conditions will prevail through
Fri night over the Gulf as high pressure dominates. Looking ahead,
fresh to strong SE to S winds may develop over the Gulf on Sat in
advance of another cold front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the Windward Passage, across Jamaica, to
near Cabo Gracias a Dios in eastern Honduras. Recent buoy data
hints there are still fresh to strong N winds and 6 to 8 ft seas
following the front over the northwest Caribbean. Moderate to
fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are likely across the
south-central and southwest Caribbean. Gentle breezes and slight
seas persist elsewhere. Regional radars are showing a few showers
off the Atlantic side of the Leeward Islands, but no significant
shower or thunderstorm activity is evident elsewhere at this
time.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds behind a cold front
extending from the Windward Passage to Honduras will continue
through Tue night, when the cold front will dissipate. A
pressure gradient across the central Caribbean will force only
fresh to locally strong NE winds late nights and early mornings
north of Colombia through Thu night. Elsewhere, winds and seas
are forecast to be quiescent for the next several days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from southeast of Bermuda near 31N63W to the
Windward Passage. Recent buoy observations confirm fresh to strong
NW winds and rough seas follow the front across the western
Atlantic. Buoy observations also show fresh to strong S to SW
winds within 360 nm ahead of the front. Seas are building in this
area as well, and are estimated to be 6 to 8 ft currently.

Farther east, the remainder of the discussion area is dominated
by the subtropical ridge, anchored by 1025 mb high pressure
centered near 27N40W. Recent scatterometer satellite data shows
this pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of
the ridge, specifically south of 20N, and gentle to moderate
breezes farther north. Combined seas are 6 to 8 ft south of 20N,
and 5 to 7 ft north of 20N primarily in NW to N swell, except for
6 to 8 ft just west of the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from
31N59W to Hispaniola Tue morning and from 23N55W to Puerto Rico
Wed morning. Peak winds ahead of the front will be S to SW near
gale to gale north of 27N, with strong NW winds behind the front
north of 27N. Conditions will gradually improve Wed, as the front
moves east of our waters. A developing low will exit the Carolina
coast Tue night and move along our 31N border through Fri. Strong
to near gale W winds are anticipated mainly north of 25N Wed
through Fri. Looking ahead, conditions Fri night into Sun should
have winds moderate or weaker across forecast waters.

$$
Christensen
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