[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292312
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Jan 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2250 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from Bermuda to
eastern Cuba. Gale force S to SW winds are forecast to occur from
late tonight through Tue afternoon within 180 nm E of the front
and north of 29.5N. By early Tue evening when the gales end, the
front is forecast to extend from 31N53W to 22N62.5W. Seas of 11 to
13 ft are expected within the gale force wind area. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly over the African Continent. The
ITCZ extends from 05.5N16W to 02.5N47.5W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 12W and 32W, and from
00N to 07N between 42W and 53W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a
1029 mb high pressure near Freeport, TX and a 1030 mb high
pressure over NE Mexico near 23N99W. Fresh N winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas prevail across the eastern Gulf. Light to moderate winds are
in the western Gulf with 3 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will cross the NE Gulf of
Mexico Tue night into Wed night bringing with it fresh NW winds.
Aside from that, quiescent marine conditions will prevail through
Fri night over the Gulf as high pressure dominates. Looking ahead,
fresh to strong SE to S winds may develop over the Gulf beginning
on Sat in advance of another cold front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from eastern Cuba near 20N77W to Honduras
near 15.5N86W. Cloudiness prevails near the front with possible
isolated showers. A surface trough embedded within the trade-
wind flow is generating similar conditions across the central
basin. Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are
evident to the northwest of this front, including in the Yucatan
Channel. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found
across the south-central and southwest Caribbean. Moderate or
weaker winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds behind a cold front
extending from E Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will continue
through tomorrow night, as the front moves southeastward until
dissipation. A weak pressure gradient across the central Caribbean
will force only fresh to locally strong NE winds late
nights/early mornings north of Colombia through Thu night.
Elsewhere, winds and seas should be quiescent for the next several
days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from Bermuda to eastern Cuba. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring along and within
490 nm SE of the cold front, mainly north of 24N between 56W and
68W. Strong NW winds and 8 to 12 ft seas prevail west of the cold
front to the east coast of Florida, and north of 25N. East of the
front to 55W, and north of 25N, fresh to strong S to SW winds and
seas of 6 to 11 ft are occurring, except to near-gale force north
of 29N within 180 nm E of the front.

Farther east, surface ridging prevails across the area east of 50W
and north of 23N, anchored by a 1024 mb high pressure centered
near 26N41W. Mostly gentle winds and 5 to 8 ft seas prevail across
the area in northerly swell. Across the tropical latitudes, fresh
trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are found from 05N to 18N between
the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front extending from Bermuda
to eastern Cuba will reach from 31N59W to Hispaniola Tue morning
and from 23N55W to Puerto Rico Wed morning. Peak winds ahead of
the front will be S to SW near gale to gale north of 27N, and
strong NW breeze behind the front again north of 27N. Conditions
will gradually improve beginning Tue night, as the front moves
east of 55W. A developing extratropical low will exit the
Carolina coast Wed and move along our 31N border through Fri.
Strong to near gale W winds are anticipated mainly north of 25N
Wed night into Fri. Looking ahead, conditions over the weekend
should have winds moderate or weaker across forecast waters.

$$
Hagen
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