[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Jan 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains mostly over the African Continent. An
ITCZ extends westward from 05N17W through 05N38W to east of Amapa
State, Brazil at 03N47W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate
convection is seen up to 80 nm north, and 120 nm south of the
ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge reaching southeastward from a 1029 mb high over
southern Texas to the Florida Straits is promoting fair weather
for the entire Gulf. Gentle N to NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
are present at the northwestern Gulf. Moderate with locally fresh
N winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will move across the
northeastern Gulf Tue night through Wed night and bring fresh NW
winds. Aside from that, quiescent marine conditions will prevail
for the next several days over the Gulf as high pressure
dominates.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends southwestward from central Cuba across the
Cayman Islands to the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers are
seen up to 80 nm along either side of this feature. A surface
trough embedded within the trade-wind flow is generating similar
conditions at the central basin. Fresh to strong northerly winds
and seas at 6 to 8 ft are evident behind this front, including the
Yucatan Channel. Fresh with locally strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft
seas are found offshore from northwestern Colombia. Gentle to
moderate NE to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in
the Caribbean Basin, including the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds behind the cold front
will continue through Tue as it moves southeastward until
dissipation Tue night. A moderate pressure gradient across the
central Caribbean will induce fresh to locally strong NE winds
late night and early morning hours north of Colombia through Fri.
Elsewhere, winds should be quiescent for the next several days.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from west of Bermuda across
31N69W and the central Bahamas to beyond central Cuba. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring up to 60 nm along
either side of this boundary. Two surface troughs are producing
scattered showers north of the Leeward Islands from 22N to 28N
between 59W and 64W, and farther east from 20N to 24N between 46W
and 55W. Convergent trades are inducing similar conditions near
the Lesser Antilles. Another surface trough is causing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms near the coast of French Guiana
and Amapa State of Brazil. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Fresh to strong with locally near-gale SW to NW winds and seas of
8 to 13 ft are evident near and behind the cold front from the
northwest Bahamas northward. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds and 6
to 8 ft seas are noted farther south from 25N to the cold front
between 65W and the central Bahamas. Moderate to fresh SE to S
winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are present farther east, north of 20N
between 57W and the cold front. For the central and eastern
Atlantic, a large dome of 1025 mb high near 26N42W is providing
light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate northerly
swell north of 18N between the northwest Africa coast and 57W,
including the Canary Islands. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle
to moderate NE trades with seas at 4 to 6 ft are seen from 05N to
18N between the central Africa coast and 35W. For the tropical
Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft
exist from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. Light
to gentle winds and 3 to 6 ft seas in mixed swells prevail for the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
reach from 31N60W to Hispaniola Tue morning and from 22N55W to
Puerto Rico Wed morning. Peak winds ahead and behind the front are
strong to near-gale north of 25N, which will gradually diminish
as the front continues eastward for the next two days. A
developing extratropical low will exit the Carolinas coast Wed and
move along our 31N border through Fri. Strong to near-gale west
winds are anticipated mainly north of 25N Wed night into Fri.

$$

Chan
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