[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291048
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Jan 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends along the shores of Cote dIvoire near
04N05W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 05N26W to
02N40W to 01N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 7N
and E of 40W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh NW to N winds are noted in the central and eastern Gulf,
with mainly moderate winds in the western Gulf. High pressure of
1030 mb centered along the Texas coast is dominating marine
weather across the basin. Seas in the SE half of the basin are 6
to 8 ft...with 3 to 6 ft seas in the NW.
Either
Winds and seas will diminish today as high pressure builds in
from the NW. Quiescent marine conditions will commence tonight and
prevail into the weekend, as high pressure dominates.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras,
and a weak westward-moving surface trough is noted just W of the
Lesser Antilles. Neither feature is inducing significant
convection at this time. Strong N winds are occurring offshore
Belize, with the rest of the basin NW of the cold front
experiencing fresh N winds. Mainly moderate trades dominate the
basin ahead of the front, although an area of fresh to strong NE
to E winds is ongoing within 90 nm of the Colombian coast. Seas
are 7 to 9 ft offshore Colombia, 6 to 8 ft behind the cold front,
and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere.

Fresh to strong trades over the waters off Colombia will
gradually decrease through the week. A cold front stretching from
western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will move E and slowly
weaken, remaining mainly N of 15N. This front will then lift NE of
Puerto Rico and out of the basin Tue night. Fresh to locally
strong N winds will follow the front in the NW Caribbean through
Tue night. A general weak pressure gradient will lead to quiescent
marine conditions for the latter half of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is noted from around 31N72W to central Cuba.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 60 nm E of
this front, N of 26N. Elsewhere, mainly dry conditions prevail as
modest high pressure, anchored by a 1020 mb center near 27N53W,
dominates the basin E of the front. There are two weak surface
troughs analyzed, one extending S from 22N58W and another from
31N31W to 27N38W.

To the E of the front, strong to near gale force SW winds are
present N of 27N and W of 64W. Behind the cold front, strong to
near gale force W to NW winds are ongoing. Seas behind the front
are 10 to 13 ft beyond 60 nm offshore Florida and the Bahamas,
with seas in the area of strong SW winds ahead of the front
averaging 7 to 9 ft. To the S and E of these areas, moderate S
winds prevail E of 55W, and moderate to fresh trades dominate S
of 19N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Sea are mainly 5
to 7 ft seas, with some 8 to 9 ft seas along and N of 30N as well
as S of 13N between 35W and 50W.

For waters W of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will move E
and stretch from E of Bermuda to Hispaniola Tue, then weaken and
slide E of the area Wed. Strong to near gale force mainly W winds
will occur on both sides of the front through Tue night. Low
pressure is forecast to develop off the Carolinas late Tue night
or early Wed, then E and SE across northern waters through Thu
night. Strong to possibly near gale force winds are expected to
develop around this low and along the southwestward-extending cold
front Wed then spread E for waters N of 25N into Fri.

$$
Konarik
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