[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290601
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jan 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia
near 07N11W, to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W, to 05N20W
04N32W 03N37W 01N42W 01N49W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 07N southward from 40W
eastward. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 10N southward from
60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong NW winds are from 92W eastward. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface
ridge extends from an east Texas 1029 mb high pressure center, to
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Storm-force winds
are being observed with scatterometer data in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec on the Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico. Mostly
moderate seas are to the south of the line that extends from the
Florida Big Bend to the coastal waters of Mexico near 25N. An
exception is for rough seas from 20N southward in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico. Another exception is for moderate to rough
seas from parts of the east central Gulf to the NW coastal waters
of the Yucatan Peninsula. Slight seas are in the rest of the Gulf
of Mexico.

A cold front has moved SE of the basin this evening. In its wake,
fresh to locally strong NW to N winds in the eastern and SW Gulf
will gradually diminish Mon. High pressure building SE into the
waters starting Mon night will then bring quiescent marine
conditions through late week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front passes through the Straits of Florida and NW Cuba,
to 21N85W in the NW Caribbean Sea. The front is stationary from
21N85W to Belize. A surface trough is within 90 nm of the cold
front from Cuba to 25N, and within 210 nm of the frontal boundary
in the NW Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate is to
the northwest of the line that runs from SE Cuba to the eastern
coast of Honduras. Slight seas are in the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong northerly winds are to the
northwest of the cold front. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in
the rest of the NW corner of the area.

Fresh to strong E to NE winds are within 150 nm of the coasts
of Venezuela and Colombia between 69W and 75W. Fresh NE winds are
elsewhere between Puerto Rico and 80W. Moderate to fresh NE winds
are from Honduras southward from 80W westward. Moderate to fresh
NE to E winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Moderate
seas are from the coast of Honduras southward between Puerto Rico
and Central America. An exception is for moderate to rough seas
off the coast of Colombia between 76W and 78W. Moderate seas are
elsewhere from 80W eastward. Slight seas are from the coast of
Honduras northward from 80W westward.

Fresh to strong trades over the waters off Colombia will
gradually decrease through the week. A cold front in the far NW
basin will move E and weaken over the next couple of days, before
diminishing in the vicinity of Hispaniola Tue night. The front
will be followed by fresh to locally strong N winds in its wake
across the NW Caribbean through Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is to the east of Florida. The front passes through
31N75W, to Grand Bahama Island, through the Straits of Florida and
NW Cuba, to 21N85W in the NW Caribbean Sea. The front is
stationary from 21N85W to Belize. A surface trough is within 90 nm
of the cold front from Cuba to 25N, and within 210 nm of the
frontal boundary in the NW Caribbean Sea. Rough seas are from 29N
northward from 70W westward. Moderate seas are elsewhere from 27N
northward from 70W westward. Near gale-force NW winds are from 29N
northward from the cold front westward. Strong southerly winds are
within 210 nm to the east of the cold front from 26N northward.
Strong NW winds are elsewhere from 27N northward from the front
westward. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are elsewhere from
Bahamas northward between 70W and the frontal boundary.
Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
from 95 nm to 150 nm to the east and to the southeast of the cold
front from the southernmost part of the Abaco Islands northward.

Fresh to strong NE winds are from 04N to 12N between 40W and 50W.
Fresh NE winds are from the ITCZ to 19N between 26W and 50W.
Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean.
Rough seas are from 30N northward between 20W and 35W. Moderate
to rough seas are from 06N to 17N between 30W and 50W; from 27N
northward between 30W and 47W.

A surface trough curves along 22N59W, to 19N62W and 13N63W in the
eastern Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: broken to overcast low
level and middle level clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 17N
to 25N between 57W and 65W.

A surface ridge extends from a 31N25W 1025 mb high pressure
center, to 28N40W, and to a 27N54W 1021 mb high pressure center,
to 28N70W.

A cold front from 31N75W to South Florida will move E and extend
from just SE of Bermuda to eastern Cuba Mon night, then reside
from 27N55W to Hispaniola Tue night. Wed, the front will begin to
stall and become oriented along 21N, N and E of Puerto Rico.
Strong W winds will prevail both ahead of and behind the front
north of 26N through Tue night. Low pressure is forecast to
develop off the Carolinas Tue night or Wed, bringing an increase
in winds N of the Bahamas Wed through Thu. As the low tracks E and
SE, the strong winds will progress eastward N of 25N Thu night
into Fri.

$$
mt/sk
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