[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 282325
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Jan 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A weak monsoon trough remains mostly over the African Continent.
The ITCZ runs from 05N17W to 04N30W to 02N48W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen on both side of the ITCZ, and mainly from 03N
to 05N between 20W and 43W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front crosses just south of the Florida
Keys and into western Cuba. Low level clouds, with possible
showers, associated with the frontal boundary are affecting the
SE Gulf and the Yucatan Peninsula. Cold air stratocumulus clouds
in the wake of the front dominate most of the Gulf waters, except
the NW Gulf where a drier air continues to filter into the region.
Low clouds are banked up against the Sierra Madre mountains in
Mexico, mainly south of Tampico. Fresh to strong N winds and
seas at 8 to 10 ft are present at the southwestern Gulf,
including the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds
and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NW to N winds will prevail in
the Gulf region through tonight. In the wake of the cold front,
high pressure will build into the area, leading to quiescent
conditions by Mon night and continuing through much of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends over western Cuba and the NW Caribbean
reaching the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N87.5W. Low
level clouds, with possible showers, are associated with the
frontal boundary. A band of mainly low clouds is ahead of the
front, and runs from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras.
Fresh to locally strong NW winds follow the front with seas of 5
to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are ahead
of the front over the remainder of the NW Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure located SE
of Bermuda near 26N55W and lower pressure over Colombia supports
moderate to fresh winds across most of the east and central
Caribbean, with an area of fresh to strong winds near the coast
of Colombia. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in the south-central Caribbean,
and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere across the east and central parts of the
basin. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, will
continue to move across the region producing isolated to scattered
passing showers.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades over the waters off
Colombia will gradually decrease through the week. The above
mentioned cold front will gradually weaken as it slides E into
the north-central Caribbean by Wed. The front will be followed
by fresh to locally strong N winds in its wake across the NW
Caribbean through Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is off NE Florida and extends southward across SE
Florida, crossing just south of the Florida Keys, and into
western Cuba. Some shower activity is ahead of the front, but
mainly just N of the NW Bahamas. Fresh to strong winds are on
either side of the front mainly N of 27N with seas of 8 to 9 ft.
The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the
influence of a ridge, anchored by a 1023 mb high pressure
situated SE of Bermuda near 26N55W. Light and variable winds are
along the ridge axis. Moderate to fresh trades dominate the
tropical Atlantic N of the ITCZ with seas of 6 to 8 ft. A surface
trough extends from a weak 1018 mb low pressure located near
32N34W to 27N40W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in N swell are behind the
trough axis.

A weak low level disturbance, commonly referred to as Screaming
Eagle, is now reaching the northern Leeward Islands. Heavy
showers, with gusty winds may accompany this feature. On Sunday,
visible satellite imagery showed an unusual and extensive plume
of Saharan dust over the eastern Atlantic, including the Cabo
Verde Islands. A rope cloud was noted along the leading edge of
the African dust.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will move
quickly E, reaching from just SE of Bermuda to the eastern tip of
Cuba Mon night, and from 30N55W to Hispaniola Tue night, then
slow down and weaken from around 25N55W to the Mona Passage Wed.
Strong W winds will prevail both ahead of and behind the front
north of 26N through Tue night. Low pressure is likely to develop
off the Carolinas the middle of this week, bringing an increase
in winds N of the Bahamas Wed into Thu, with the strong winds
shifting eastward N of 25N Thu night into Fri.

$$
GR
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