[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281807
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jan 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A weak monsoon trough remains mostly over the African Continent.
An ITCZ runs west-southwestward from southwest of Sierra Leone at
06N18W through 04N30W to 02N46W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen up to 140 nm north, and 80 nm south of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends southwestward from Tampa, Florida to the
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are occurring up to 50 nm along either side of this boundary.
Otherwise, a strong surface ridge runs southeastward from a 1030
mb high over northern Mexico to the central Bay of Campeche.
Fresh to strong N winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are present at the
southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to
fresh N to NNW winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail for the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, the cold front will move quickly and be
southeast of the area by tonight. Ahead of the front, areas of
fog are expected offshore the Florida Peninsula this afternoon.
Behind the front, fresh to strong NW to N winds will prevail into
tonight. In the wake of the cold front, high pressure will build
into the region, leading to quiescent conditions by Mon night and
continuing through much of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1023 mb Bermuda High near 26N63W is sustaining a trade-wind
regime across the entire Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades are
triggering scattered showers at the central basin. Fresh to
strong ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are present at the south-
central basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas are noted at the northwestern basin, including the Windward
Passage. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft
prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh to strong
trades over the south-central Caribbean today. The high will shift
eastward and weaken tonight, decreasing the trade winds with
improved conditions through Tue night. A cold front will reach the
Yucatan Channel this afternoon, followed by fresh to locally
strong N winds in its wake across the northwestern Caribbean
through Tue night. This front will gradually weaken as it slides
eastward into the north-central basin by Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A pre-frontal trough is generating scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at the northeastern Florida offshore waters. A weak
cold front curves southwestward from a 1018 mb low at 31N34W to
28N39W, then continues northwestward as a warm front to beyond 31N
at 42W. Patchy showers are occurring near and up to 50 nm south
and west of this boundary. Two surface troughs embedded within the
trade-wind flow are triggering scattered showers just east of the
Leeward Islands from 15N to 21N between 56W and 61W, and farther
north from 25N to 28N between 55W and 62W. Convergent trade winds
are producing scattered moderate convection from 01N to 08N
between 47W and the coast of Amapa State, Brazil.

An expansive 1023 mb Bermuda High near 26N63W and its associated
ridge are dominating much of the Atlantic Basin north of 22N
between 25W and 70W with light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7
ft. To the west, moderate to locally strong E to SW winds and 6
to 8 ft seas are noted north of 27N between 70W and the Georgia-
Florida coast. Farther south, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and
seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident from 20N to 27N between 70W and the
Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, light to gentle winds and 3 to
5 ft seas are found north of 21N between the northwest Africa
coast and 25W. Farther south from 07N to 21N between the central
Africa coast and 40W, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at
4 to 6 ft are seen, including the Cabo Verde Islands. For the
tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6
to 8 ft dominate from 06N to 20N/22N between 40W and the Lesser
Antilles. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate
mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds are over
the waters north of the Bahamas, ahead of a cold front that will
move offshore Florida later this afternoon. This front will move
quickly eastward, reaching from just southeast of Bermuda to the
eastern tip of Cuba on Mon night, from 30N55W to Hispaniola Tue
night, then slow down and weaken from around 25N55W to the Mona
Passage Wed. Strong W winds will prevail both ahead of and behind
the front north of 26N through Tue night. Low pressure is likely
to develop off the Carolinas during the middle of this week,
bringing an increase in winds north of the Bahamas Wed into Thu,
with the strong winds shifting eastward north of 25N Thu night
into Fri.

$$

Chan
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