[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241815
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Jan 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low
will continue to support pulsing gale-force winds off the coast
of northwestern Colombia each night through Fri night. Seas are
forecast to peak at 14 to 16 ft during the period of gale force
winds.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains over the Africa continent. An ITCZ
extends southwestward from the Liberia coast near Monrovia across
05N20W to 01N35W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen
near and south of the ITCZ from the Equator to 04N between 10W and
35W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front cuts across the northwestern Gulf from Lake
Charles, Louisiana to south of Corpus Christi, Texas. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are found near and up to 60 nm
northwest of this feature. Otherwise, a surface ridge runs
southwestward from northern Florida to south of Tampico, Mexico.
Patchy dense marine fog is persisting within about 30 nm of the
coast from New Orleans Louisiana eastward to the Florida
Panhandle. Visibility of 3 to third quarter mile are expected in
dense fog. Gentle to moderate NW to NE to SE winds and seas of 4
to 6 ft are present at the far western Gulf. Fresh with locally
strong ESE to SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas prevail for the rest of
the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic
combined with lower pressures over Texas and Mexico will continue
to support fresh SE winds across most of the Gulf waters today.
Winds will diminish a bit this evening before the stationary
front starts moving southeastward across the northwestern Gulf
late tonight. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to Tampico,
Mexico late Thu before stalling again. Scattered thunderstorms
will spread across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico from later
this afternoon through Thu. Dense marine fog mentioned in the
above locations should dissipate later this afternoon. Another
cold front will reach the NW Gulf late Fri night, extend from
Mobile, Alabama to near Veracruz, Mexico late Sat, and from Tampa
Bay to the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun morning. Fresh NW to N
winds will follow this front across the Gulf of Mexico, with
strong to near-gale force winds in the SW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

A stationary front extends west-northwestward from northeast of
the Virgin Islands at 19N60W across the northern coast of Puerto
Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba. Patchy showers are occurring near and
up to 40 nm north of this boundary. Otherwise, a strong 1035 mb
high north of the basin continues to provide a trade-wind regime
for the entire basin. Convergent trade winds are causing widely
scattered showers across the southern half of the Caribbean Sea.

Strong to near-gale NE to E winds and seas of 12 to 15 ft are
present at the south-central basin. Strong E winds and 10 to 12 ft
seas are evident at the north-central basin. Moderate to fresh E
to SE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft exist at the northwestern basin,
including the Yucatan Channel. Fresh with locally strong ENE to E
winds and 8 to 11 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
Basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong high
pressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will
continue to support strong trade winds and rough seas over most of
the basin, including the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras,
through at least Thu. Seas will gradually subside over the
weekend as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from near the Azores across
31N35W to 26N40W, then continues as a stationary front to the
northern coast of the Greater Antilles. Scattered moderate
convection is noted up to 40 nm along either side of the cold
front, while patchy showers are observed up to 60 nm along either
side of the stationary front. A surface trough reaches
southwestward from 30N32W to 14N45W. Scattered moderate convection
is flaring up to 50 nm along either side of this feature.
Convergent trades are triggering widely scattered showers east of
French Guiana from 04N to 08N between 40W and 50W, and from 10N to
17N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate NNE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed
swells are evident north of 27N between 45W and 65W. Otherwise,
fresh to strong NE to ESE winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft dominate
north of 20N between the cold/stationary front and Georgia-
Florida coast. To the east, gentle winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in
moderate NW swell are found north of 20N between 30W and the cold
front/45W. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally
strong E to SE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft exist north of 22N
between the northwest Africa coast and 30W. Near the Cabo Verde
Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and
seas of 4 to 7 ft are found from 08N to 20N between the Africa
coast and 45W. for the tropical Atlantic, fresh to strong ENE
winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are observed from 10N to 20N between 45W
and the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and
seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will sink
southward as a cold front later this afternoon, reaching the
northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. Strong high pressure in
the wake of the front will continue to bring strong trade winds
and rough seas mainly across the waters south of 25N through
tonight. Winds and seas will then gradually decrease toward the
end of the week as the high pressure weakens. Looking ahead, the
next cold front should emerge off the coast of northeastern
Florida by Sun.

$$

Chan
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net