[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jan 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low
will continue to support pulsing gale-force winds off the coast
of northwestern Colombia each night through Fri night. Seas are
forecast to peak at 14 to 16 ft during the period of gale force
winds.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains over the Africa continent. The ITCZ
extends southwestward from the Liberia coast to 06N20W to 01N35W.
Currently, there is no significant convection to report.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered over The Carolinas adjacent open waters
continue to extend a ridge SW across the Florida Peninsula and
through the far western far Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and a surface trough over the NW Caribbean,
remnants of a former frontal boundary, is supporting fresh to
strong E to SE winds across the Florida Straits and offshore the
northern Yucatan Peninsula. Over the remainder eastern half of the
basin, moderate to fresh SE winds are ongoing along with 5-7 ft
seas while gentle to moderate SE winds and seas to 6 ft dominate
the waters W of 90W.

For the forecast, a weak cold front will move into the NW Gulf
late tonight. The front will reach from SE Louisiana to Tampico,
Mexico late Thu before stalling. Scattered thunderstorms are
likely to continue across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this
evening through Thu. Another cold front will reach the NW Gulf
late Fri night, extend from Mobile, Alabama to near Veracruz,
Mexico late Sat, and from Tampa Bay to the eastern Bay of Campeche
Sun morning. Fresh NW to N winds will follow this front across
the Gulf of Mexico, with strong to near-gale force winds in the
SW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.



For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong high
pressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will
continue to support strong trade winds and rough seas over most of
the basin, including the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras,
through Thu night. Pulsing gale conditions are forecast during the
nighttime through the early morning hours near the coast of
Colombia through Fri night, along with rough seas. Seas will
gradually subside over the weekend as a cold front approaches the
Yucatan Channel.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near 18N55W to 18N68W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will gradually
dissipate tonight. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front
will continue to bring strong trade winds and rough seas mainly
across the waters S of 25N through Thu morning. Winds and seas
will then gradually decrease Thu night through Fri night as the
high pressure weakens. Looking ahead, the next cold front should
emerge off the coast of NE Florida by Sun.

$$
Ramos
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