[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Jan 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low
will continue to support pulsing gale-force winds off the coast
of northwestern Colombia each night through Fri night. Gale force
winds are also expected in the Gulf of Venezuela this evening.
A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured a large area of
gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean, and in the
Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are forecast to peak at 14 to 16 ft
offshore NW Colombia, and 6 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Venezuela
during the period of gale force winds.

Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 03N24W. The
ITCZ extends from 03N24W to 02N35W and to 02N50W. No deep
convection is observed along the monsoon trough or ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A large high pressure system centered near Bermuda extends a ridge
across the Gulf region, producing fresh to strong E to SE winds
over the eastern half of the Gulf, including the Straits of Florida,
and moderate to fresh SE winds over the western half of the basin.
Seas are 8 to 9 ft E of 90W, and 5 to 8 ft W of 90W, except in
the Bay of Campeche where seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range. Seas of
8 to 10 ft are in the Straits of Florida. Some shower activity is
near the coast of Texas while dense marine fog is expected within
about 30 nm of the coast from Mobile, Alabama to Brownsville,
Texas through mid-morning. Visibility will be reduce to one
quarter mile or less in dense fog.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic combined
with lower pressures over Texas and Mexico will continue to
support fresh to locally strong E to SE winds across most of the
Gulf waters today. Winds will diminish a bit by late today before
a weak cold front moves into the NW Gulf late tonight. The front
will reach from SE Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico late Thu before
stalling. Another cold front will reach the NW Gulf late Fri
night, extend from SE Louisiana to near Veracruz, Mexico on Sat,
and from Tampa Bay to the eastern Bay of Campeche on Sun. Fresh NW
to N winds will follow this front across the Gulf of Mexico, with
strong winds in the SW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

Gale-force winds are occurring over the south-central Caribbean
due to the tight pressure gradient between a large high pressure
system over the western Atlantic, located near Bermuda, and the
Colombian low. This weather pattern also supports fresh to strong
winds over most of the basin, including the Windward Passage and
the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in the central Caribbean are 10 to 16
ft, with the highest seas near the coast of Colombia. Seas of 8 to
10 ft prevail elsewhere S of 18N and E of 83W. Seas of 6 to 9 ft
are noted in the NW Caribbean, and in the Windward Passage.

A stationary front extends along the north coast of Hispaniola
helping to induce some shower activity. Patches of low level
moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are noted elsewhere
producing isolated to scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong high pressure
north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will continue
to support strong trade winds and rough seas over most of the
basin, including the Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras,
through at least Thu. Pulsing gale conditions are forecast during
the nighttime through the morning hours near the coast of Colombia
through Fri night, along with rough seas. Gale conditions are
also expected to pulse in the Gulf of Venezuela this evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N34W and continues
southwestward to 21N50W, where it becomes a stationary front to
the north coast of Hispaniola. A strong high pressure of 1036 mb
located near Bermuda is observed in the wake of the front. The
pressure gradient between this system and the front is producing a
large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly S of 27N and W
of 55W, with seas of 8 to 12 ft outside of the Bahamas. The
highest seas of 11 to 12 ft are noted NE of Puerto Rico based on
an altimeter pass. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are also noted
behind the front E of 55W, with seas of 8 to 11 ft. Satellite
derived wind data indicate an area of fresh to strong winds S of
the aforementioned stationary front to about 14N and W of 48W.
Seas in this region are 8 to 11 ft according to an altimeter pass.
Seas of 7 to 10 ft, in mixed NE wind waves and NW swell, prevail
elsewhere across most of the waters SE of the front and W of 35W.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast discussion is dominated by
another strong high pressure of 1036 mb located NE of the Madeira
Islands near 37N11W. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the remainder
of the tropical Atlantic between the W coast of Africa and the
Lesser Antilles. Seas are 8 to 9 ft N of the Cabo Verde Islands
and E of 35W.

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from near
20N55W to the north coast of Hispaniola. The front will sink
southward today reaching the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto
Rico. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will continue
to bring strong trade winds and rough seas mainly across the
waters S of 25N through tonight. Winds and seas will then
gradually decrease toward the end of the week as the high pressure
weakens. Looking ahead, the next cold front should emerge off the
coast of NE Florida by Sun

$$
GR
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