[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240420
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jan 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure over the NW Atlantic and the Colombian low will
support pulsing gale-force winds off the coast of northwestern
Colombia each night through Fri night. Gale force winds are also
expected in the Gulf of Venezuela this evening and Wednesday
evening. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured 34-37 kt
winds in the offshore waters of Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. Seas are forecast to peak at 14 to 17 ft offshore NW
Colombia and 6 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Venezuela during the period
of gale force winds.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
the items above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 03N26W. The ITCZ
extends from 03N26W to 01N37W and to 02N50W. No deep convection is
observed along the monsoon trough or ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An expansive subtropical ridge over the NW Atlantic extends into
the Gulf of Mexico. No deep convection is noted across the basin.
The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower
pressures in the western Gulf result in fresh to strong SE winds
in the eastern Gulf waters, especially east of 90W. The strongest
winds are occurring in the SE Gulf and Florida Straits. Seas in
these waters are 7-10 ft, except for 4-7 ft in the NE Gulf.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high
pressure east of the area and lower pressures over Texas and
Mexico will continue to support fresh SE winds across most of the
Gulf through Wed. Winds will diminish a bit by late Wed before a
weak cold front moves into the NW Gulf late Wed night. The front
will reach from SE Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico late Thu before
stalling. Another cold front will reach the NW Gulf late Fri
night, extend from SE louisiana to Tampico Sat morning, and from
Tampa Bay to the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun morning. Fresh NW to
N winds will follow this front across the Gulf of Mexico, with
strong winds in the SW Gulf. Dense marine fog is expected within
about 30 nm of the coast from Mobile, ALabama to Brownsville,Texas
through Wed morning.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

The 1036 mb high pressure system near Bermuda extends southward
into the Caribbean Sea. No deep convection is seen in the basin,
however, pockets of low-level moisture travel westward in the
trade winds and produce isolated, weak showers. Outside of the
Gale Warning area in the south-central Caribbean, the strong
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the
deep tropics result in fresh to near gale-force easterly winds
across much of the Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass captured near gale-force winds offshore southern Haiti. Rough
to very rough seas are prevalent in the eastern and central
Caribbean, while moderate seas are found in the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a strong high
pressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will
lead to a continuation of strong trade winds and rough seas over
most of the basin, including the Windward Passage and Gulf of
Honduras, through at least Thu. Pulsing gale conditions are
forecast during the nighttime through the morning hours near the
coast of Colombia through Fri night, along with rough seas. Gale
conditions are also expected to pulse in the Gulf of Venezuela
this evening and Wed evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N34W and
continues southwestward to 21N54W, then it transitions into a
stationary front to eastern Cuba. A few showers are evident near
the frontal boundary. The pressure gradient between the strong
high pressure in the NW Atlantic and the frontal boundary result
in fresh to strong anticyclonic winds behind the frontal boundary
and the remainder of the SW North Atlantic. Seas north of the
frontal boundary are 8-12 ft. An exception occurs closer to the
expansive ridge, mainly north of 29N and between 45W and 70W,
where moderate or weaker winds and 4-8 ft seas prevail.

Broad ridging dominates the rest of the tropical Atlantic,
resulting in fresh to locally strong easterly winds south of the
aforementioned front and west of 50W. Seas are 8-11 ft in these
waters. Farther east, fresh to locally strong easterly winds are
present north of 15N and east of 27W. Seas are 5-8 ft in the area
described. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will sink
southward tonight into Wed reaching the NE Caribbean while
weakening. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will
continue to bring strong trade winds and rough seas mainly across
the waters S of 25N through Wed night. Winds and seas will then
gradually decrease toward the end of the week as the high pressure
weakens. Looking ahead, the next cold front should emerge off the
coast of NE Florida by Sun.

$$
Delgado
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