[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232102
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Jan 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:
The pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the
northwestern Atlantic and the Colombian low will support pulsing
gale-force winds off the coast of northwestern Colombia each night
through Fri night. Gale force winds are also expected in the Gulf
of Venezuela this evening and Wednesday evening. Seas are forecast
to peak at 14 to 17 ft offshore northwestern Colombia and 6 to 8
ft in the Gulf of Venezuela during the period of gale force winds.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
the items above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Africa coast
near 06N11W to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues westward from 04N17W
to 02N35W. Scattered moderate convection is observed near these
features from 02N to 04N between 15W and 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough from the central Gulf to the northeastern Gulf
is producing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection N
of 25N between 84W and 88W. A surface ridge extends across the SE
Gulf. Strong to near gale force winds are in the vicinity of the
trough over the NE Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere E
of 88W. Gentle to moderate winds are W of 88W. Seas are in the
8-12 ft range between 85W and 90W, highest in the vicinity of
near- gale force winds. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-7 ft range.

For the forecast, the trough should weaken tonight, and the winds
and seas will then subside. Dense marine fog is possible near the
Texas and Louisiana coasts through Wed morning. Otherwise, the
pressure gradient between strong high pressure east of the area
and lower pressures over Texas and Mexico will lead to a
continuation of fresh SE winds across most of the Gulf through
Wed. Winds will diminish a bit by late Wed before a weak cold
front moves into the NW Gulf late Wed night. The front will reach
from SE Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico late Thu before stalling.
Another cold front will reach the NW Gulf late Fri night, extend
from SE louisiana to Tampico Sat morning, and from Tampa Bay to
the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun morning. Fresh NW to N winds will
follow this front across the Gulf of Mexico, with strong winds in
the SW Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

Winds have briefly diminished below gale force off Colombia, with
strong to near gale force winds prevailing over the central
Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong winds are over the eastern
Caribbean while fresh winds are over the western Caribbean. Seas
are in the 10-15 ft range between 70W and 82W, and 7-10 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, pressure gradient between a strong high pressure
north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will support
strong trade winds and rough seas over most of the basin through
at least Thu. Pulsing gale conditions are forecast during the
nighttime through the morning hours near the coast of Colombia
through Fri night, along with rough seas. Gale conditions are also
expected to pulse in the Gulf of Venezuela this evening and Wed
evening.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 21N55W to 20N65W, where it becomes
stationary to the eastern tip of Cuba. Fresh to strong winds are
noted within 90 nm N of the front S of 25N, where seas are in the
10-12 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere N and W of
the front, with seas in the 7-10 ft range. Moderate to fresh
winds, and seas of 7-9 ft generally prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will remain nearly
stationary along 20N today, then sink southward tonight into Wed
reaching the NE Caribbean while weakening. Strong high pressure
building in the wake of the front will continue to bring strong
trade winds and rough seas mainly across the waters S of 25N
through Wed night. Winds and seas will then gradually decrease
toward the end of the week as the high pressure weakens. Looking
ahead, the next cold front should emerge off the coast of NE
Florida by Sun.

$$
AL
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