[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jan 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning:
The pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the
northwestern Atlantic and the Colombian low will continue to
support pulsing gale-force winds off the coast of northwestern
Colombia every night through Fri night. Gale force winds are also
expected in the Gulf of Venezuela this evening and Wednesday
evening. Seas are forecast to peak at 14 to 17 ft offshore
northwestern Colombia and 6 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Venezuela
during the period of gale force winds.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
the items above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Africa coast near
the Sierra Leone-Liberia border, then extends southwestward to
04N17W. An ITCZ continues westward from 04N17W through 02N25W to
02N37W. Scattered moderate convection is observed near these
features from 01N to 05N between 10W and 19W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A robust surface trough running northeastward from the central
Gulf to the northeastern Gulf is triggering scattered showers and
thunderstorms north of 22N between 83W and 90W. A weak warm front
stretches eastward from a 1012 mb low over southern Texas to south
of New Orleans. Widely scattered showers are occurring near and
up to 60 nm north of this feature. A surface ridge reaches
southwestward from a strong 1036 mb high pressure off the
Carolinas across central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to
strong SE to S winds and seas of 8 to 14 ft are present at the
eastern Gulf. Gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted at the
southwestern Gulf, including the western Bay of Campeche. Gentle
to moderate southerly winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft prevail for the
rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, expect fresh to strong winds and thunderstorms
to persist at the eastern Gulf through today as the trough drifts
northeastward. As the trough weakens tonight, winds and seas will
steadily subside. Dense marine fog is possible near the Texas and
Louisiana coasts through Wed morning. Otherwise, the pressure
gradient between the surface ridge and lower pressures over Texas
and Mexico will sustain fresh SE winds across most of the Gulf
through Wed. Winds will diminish a bit by late Wed before a weak
cold front moves into the northwestern Gulf toward the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale
Warning.

A stationary front reaches west-northwestward from north of
Puerto Rico across northern Hispaniola to central Cuba. Patchy
showers are seen over Cuba, Hispaniola and nearby Caribbean
waters, including the Windward Passage. Otherwise, a strong 1036
mb high near Bermuda continues to channel easterly trade winds
across the entire Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades are producing
widely scattered showers across the central and eastern basin.

Outside of the Gale Waring areas, fresh to strong with locally
near-gale ENE to E winds and seas at 8 to 12 ft dominate the
eastern, central and southwestern basin. Fresh to strong SE to S
winds and 8 to 10 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
Basin, including the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas
across much of the basin will persist through at least Thursday.
However, strong winds in the lee of Cuba and Yucatan Channel will
diminish to fresh this afternoon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the Azores across 31N37W to
north of Puerto Rico at 20N66W, then continues west-northwestward
as a stationary front across northern Hispaniola to central Cuba.
Scattered showers are occurring near and up to 100 nm northwest of
the cold front. Patchy showers are found near and up to 60 nm
north of the stationary front. The combination of an upper-level
low near 21N25W and a couple of surface troughs nearby is
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 13N
to 23N between 18W and 29W, including the Cabo Verde Islands.
Another surface trough embedded within the trades is causing
widely scattered showers from 02N to 09N between 40W and 50W.
Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in
the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate N to ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in
moderate northerly swell are noted north of 27N between 50W and
70W. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE to ESE winds and 9 to 12 ft
seas exist north of 20N between the cold front and Georgia-Florida
coast. Farther east, gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and seas
of 6 to 8 ft in moderate NW swell are found north of 20N between
25W and the cold front/45W. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde
Islands, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in
moderate NW swell are present north of 05N between the Africa
coast and 25W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N, gentle
to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE winds and seas at 6 to 8
ft are seen between 25W and 50W. Fresh with locally strong NE
winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted from 07N to 20N between
50W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle with locally moderate
NE to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front
will remain nearly stationary today, then sink southward tonight
into Wednesday, reaching the northeastern Caribbean while
weakening. Strong high pressure building in the wake of the front
will continue to bring strong trade winds and rough seas mainly
across the waters south of 25N through Wed night. Winds and seas
will then gradually decrease toward Friday as the high pressure
weakens.

$$

Chan
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