[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231029
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Jan 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong
high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low will
continue to support pulsing gale-force winds off the coast of NW
Colombia every night through Fri night. Gale force winds are also
expected in the Gulf of Venezuela again this evening. Seas are
forecast to peak near 14 to 16 ft offshore NW Colombia and 6 to 8
ft in the Gulf of Venezuela during the period of gale force winds.
Recent satellite derived wind data indicate a large area of strong
to gale force winds over the south-central Caribbean while an
altimeter pass provides observations of seas in the 12 to 16 ft
range within these wind speeds.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
the items above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07.5N12W and continues southwestward to 03N19W.
The ITCZ extends from 03N19W to 02N35W and to 00N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 03N to 05N between 10W and
16W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong 1037 mb high pressure system centered just east of the
Outer Banks extends a ridge across the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure
gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in
Texas and Mexico sustains fresh to strong E to SE winds across
most of the basin. Seas are 8 to 12 ft east of 90W, and 5 to 8 ft
W of 90W. A surface trough is analyzed from 27N87W to 20N91W. An
area of showers and thunderstorms is associated with the trough.
Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. An upper-level
trough located over the western Gulf supports this convective
activity.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure
east of the area and lower pressures over Texas and Mexico will
lead to a continuation of fresh to strong E to SE winds across
most of the Gulf through at least tonight. A cluster of thunderstorms
near a sharp surface trough is likely to affect portions of the
eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico today, bringing strong to near
gale force winds and rough seas. Winds will diminish a bit by late
Wed before a weak cold front moves into the NW Gulf toward the
end of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about an ongoing Gale
Warning in the south-central Caribbean.

A stationary front extends from Hispaniola to near the Cayman
Islands, supporting a few showers across the nearby islands and
surrounding waters. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the
trade wind flow, are noted elsewhere producing isolated to scattered
passing showers.

Outside of the south-central Caribbean, the pressure gradient
between strong high pressure north of the basin and lower pressures
in the deep tropics supports fresh to strong trade winds across
the most of the Caribbean Sea, including the Windward Passage and
the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in the central Caribbean are 10 to 16
ft, with the highest seas near the coast of Colombia. Seas of 8 to
10 ft prevail elsewhere, with the exception of 9 to 11 ft in the
Windward Passage.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the strong high
pressure north of the area and lower pressure over Colombia will
lead to a continuation of strong trade winds and rough seas over
most of the basin, including the Windward Passage and Gulf of
Honduras, through at least Thu. Pulsing gale conditions are
forecast during the nighttime through the morning hours near the
coast of Colombia through Fri night, along with rough seas. Gale
conditions are also expected to pulse in the Gulf of Venezuela
again this evening. The stationary front will gradually dissipate,
allowing strong winds in the NW Caribbean and lee of Cuba to
diminish a bit this afternoon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast region near 31N40W and continues
southwestward to 21N60W, where it becomes a stationary front to
Hispaniola. A strong high pressure of 1037 mb located between
Bermuda and the Outer Banks follows the front. The pressure
gradient between this system and the front is producing a large
area of fresh to strong NE to E winds mainly S of 27N and W of 55W
with seas of 8 to 11 ft outside of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong Nw
to N winds are also noted in the wake of the front E of 55W with
seas of 9 to 14 ft based on altimeter data. Seas of 7 to 9 ft, in
mixed NE and NW swell, prevail across most of the waters SE of
the front and W of 35W.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast discussion is dominated by
another strong high pressure of 1038 mb located NE of the Madeira
Islands near 37N13W. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted N of 24N
and E of 20W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh
winds dominate the tropical Atlantic between the W coast of Africa
and the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 8 to 12 ft N of the Cabo Verde
Islands and E of 35W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front will remain
nearly stationary along 20N today, then sink southward tonight
into Wed reaching the NE Caribbean while weakening. Strong high
pressure building in the wake of the front will continue to bring
strong trade winds and rough seas mainly across the waters S of
25N through Wed night. Winds and seas will then gradually decrease
toward the end of the work-week as the high pressure weakens.

$$
GR
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